Pound Shrugs as UK Inflation Dips

There was good news on the UK inflation front, as the November data pointed to a drop in inflation. CPI fell to 10.7% y/y, down from 11.1% in October and below the consensus of 10.9%. Core CPI eased to 6.3% y/y, down from 6.5% a month earlier, which was also the consensus. Even with the […]

NZD/USD Awaits Fed, GDP

Federal Reserve expected to hike by 50 bp All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which winds up its policy meeting later today. Policy makers are expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at this final meeting of 2022, with an outside chance of a more aggressive 75 basis point hike. This year has […]

ECB Rate Decision, How Sure is 50bps Hike?

The consensus among economists is that the ECB will hike by another 50bps. But there is this unusual situation where the ECB has its rate decision right after the Fed (and members will be meeting at the same time as the BOE). As the US is the largest trade partner, it’s understandable that the ECB […]

BoE Set for Another Rate Hike, But Divisions May Widen

The Bank of England will step into the spotlight during the post-FOMC session on Thursday at 10:00 GMT in a relatively busy week of central bank meetings and data releases. Investors expect a downshift to a half-point rate increase, though the UK’s messy economic outlook could cause wider divisions within the rate-setting committee, creating extra […]

Aussie Calm ahead of Fed, Jobs Data

The Australian dollar has posted slight gains on Wednesday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6865, up 0.16%. We can expect stronger movement from the pair later today, with the Fed rate announcement and the Australian employment report for November. Australian employment expected to slow Australia’s labour market has remained resilient, a key […]

The End of the Bear-Market Rally?

Equity markets are struggling again on Wednesday, with the latest Chinese trade data highlighting the challenges facing the global economy going into 2023. It would appear the recovery in stocks – bear-market rally, or otherwise – has run out of steam, and investors are left wondering whether what follows next is another test of the […]

Aussie Shrugs Off Soft GDP

The Australian dollar is showing limited movement for a second successive day. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6696, up 0.12%. Australia’s GDP misses forecast Australia’s economy underperformed in Q3, with a modest gain of 0.6% m/m. This was lower than the Q2 print of 0.9% and beneath the 0.7% consensus and also marked […]

Oil Seems to Be Heading for $62

WTI crude is down to $73, while Brent is approaching $78, losing 2% since the start of the day and almost 10% since the beginning of the month. Despite rumours about possible quotas cut, OPEC+ keep them for another two months, leading the price to drop. We expect pressure on prices to persist soon, with […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets In a session deprived of important data, technical considerations were the main driver for trading. The German 10-y yield at the open briefly dropped below the 1.77% neckline/early October low. The test is ongoing, but there was no trigger to force a real break. The technical picture of the 10-y EMU swap is slightly […]

Bank of Canada Delivers a 50 Basis Point Hike, But No Guarantees of Future Hikes   

The Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 4.25%, while stating that it will continue with Quantitative Tightening (QT). On rising prices, it stated that “inflation is still too high and short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. The longer that consumers and businesses expect inflation to be above the target, the greater the risk that […]