Bitcoin Price Bullish after Halving-2024

Historically, after the halving (which is associated with a reduction in supply), the price of Bitcoin heads to all-time highs. But, as Forbes reports, Goldman Sachs analysts warn against extrapolating the results of Bitcoin price movements after past halvings to the current moment. After all, back then, the halvings occurred during a period of loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, while this time the Fed is struggling with harsher-than-expected inflation.

Aussie Slips to 2024 Lows on Geopolitics

Against that backdrop the Aussie slipped from around 0.6425 to new lows for the year at 0.6363. But as it became clear that key Iranian nuclear infrastructure facilities were untouched and Iranian officials were downplaying the event global markets quickly regained their composure.

Bitcoin Recovers, Altcoins Humbly Follow

Bitcoin added 1.9% in 24 hours to $66.4K, gradually adding since last Thursday. The price hasn’t moved much in recent days, balancing the positivity from the halving and the negativity from the Nasdaq index’s decline.

April Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period: Waiting for Godot?

We share the market's overwhelming expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will leave the fed funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the conclusion of its April 30-May 1 meeting.

Sunset Market Commentary

Eurostat today published deficit and debt data for the years 2020-2023 in E(M)U). The euro area government deficit declined marginally from 3.7% of GDP in 2022 to 3.6% in 2023. The government debt to GDP ratio decreased over the same period from 90.8% to 88.6%. Zooming in on Belgium, Eurostat reported an increase of the deficit from 3.6% of GDP to 4.4% of GDP with the debt ratio rising from 104.3% to 105.2%.

Markets Will Keep a Close Eye on Developments in Middle East

Later today, markets evidently will keep a close eye on the developments in the Middle East. This might lead to a more cautious sentiment on risk. However, it’s far from sure that a less positive sentiment will automatically translate into lower bond yields. Higher commodity prices and potential supply disruptions (shipping) don’t help the disinflationary process.

Crypto Let Off Steam Rather than Start a Reversal

It was a non-boring weekend for the cryptocurrency market. Market sentiment swung sharply towards buying the dollar and selling stocks, gold, and cryptos on Friday afternoon. Also operating over the weekend, the crypto market accelerated its decline on Saturday, with capitalisation falling to $2.2 trillion (-18% from Monday’s peak) but began to recover on Sunday and has risen to $2.42 trillion (-7% in seven days) at the time of writing.

NZ Dollar Slides to Five-Month Low

The New Zealand dollar has stabilized on Monday after as sharp decline of 1% on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5945, up 0.14%. The New Zealand dollar dropped as low as 0.5927 earlier, its lowest point since November 14.

Crude Oil's Tactical Retreat, Unlikely Turn Around

Oil is losing more than 1% on Monday, below $84 a barrel for WTI and below $89 for Brent after Friday’s rollercoaster, when prices peaked above $87 and $91.6, respectively. The drivers were geopolitics, where fears of an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Palestine fueled the growth. The decline was helped by the relatively conciliatory rhetoric of the US and the strengthening of the dollar.

Euro Ends Slide as Industrial Production Rebounds

The euro has stabilized on Monday after sustaining sharp losses on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0656, up 0.14%. The US dollar posted strong gains last week against the majors and surged 1.8% against the euro, which fell to a six-month low.