Pound Slips to 4.5-Month Low, UK GDP Ticks Higher

The British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2594, down 0.47%. The pound is down 1.1% this week and fell to 1.2489 earlier today, its lowest point since November 23.

Cryptocurrencies Look Stronger Than Stocks

The crypto market continues to avoid gaining momentum on the upside but remains within an uptrend: the bulls fail to accelerate price gains, but the overall upward trend remains. ‘Extreme Greed’ persists in the markets, with the corresponding index at 79. In contrast, the sentiment in the stock markets is almost ‘Neutral’.

NZ Dollar Slips as Manufacturing Softens

The New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Friday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5956, down 0.68%. The US dollar has moved higher against the majors and NZD/USD has declined about 1% this week.

Sunset Market Commentary

This morning we wrote: “The dollar holds the better cards against both the euro and the pound. EUR/USD is nearing the 1.07 pivot again and GBP/USD holds close to 1.25 this morning. Which will break first?” Well, both, it turned out. A clearer than ever divergent path between the Fed and ECB specifically weighs on the euro.

Weekly Focus

A surprisingly high US inflation print this week triggered the biggest shake-up in US bond markets in more than a year. The US 2-year government bond yield closed 23bp higher on the day, which was the biggest one-day move since March last year. It reflects a further repricing of expectations for Fed policy with money markets now pushing the first cut out to September (priced with 90% probability).

Week Ahead – More Inflation Data on the Way as Rate Cut Bets Thrown into Disarray

After yet another hot CPI report in the United States, inflation data will remain at the forefront of the upcoming week’s releases, including in the United Kingdom. But first up on the UK agenda will be the February employment report on Tuesday.

Will US Retail Sales Add Juice to the Dollar's Rally?

By most indications, the US economy finished the first quarter on a high note. Incoming data point to a robust labor market, which has helped bolster consumer demand and in the process, reignited inflationary pressures. 

Canadian Inflation to Tick Higher as BoC Considers Rate Cuts

The Bank of Canada will be focused on the March Canadian consumer price index report next Tuesday after another upward surprise in U.S. price growth created doubt about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting plans this year.

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: No, No, After You

The not-quite synchronized actions of the world's central banks came into better focus this week. We explore how that is impacting the rates market in the United States and abroad, particularly as expectations shift in the foreign exchange market.

The Weekly Bottom Line: One Hundred Days into 2024, Rate Cuts Remain on the Horizon

Financial markets were caught off-guard this week as slightly hotter than expected inflation data prompted a spike in U.S. Treasury yields and a modest retreat in equity prices. As of the time of writing, the ten- and two-year Treasury yields finished the week up roughly 15 basis-points (Chart 1), while the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. While the deviation relative to expectations for the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was marginal, the underlying details proved to be more concerning.