ECB and Danmarks Nationalbank Take Centre Stage

Market movers today We expect a 75bp hike from the ECB today, which is also fully priced in by markets. Focus will be on communication and we expect Lagarde to acknowledge that the risk of the downside scenario from September materialising has increased. We think it is a 70/30 call if Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) will […]

Big Tech Lead Selloff – USD Softens, as ECB Meets

Yesterday wasn’t a good day for the US Big Tech. Google dived almost 10% after reporting disappointing results, while Microsoft sank almost 8%. Nasdaq bounced 2% lower after having tested the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a touch below the 11700. And don’t expect things to look better today. Meta dived another 20% in the afterhours […]

EUR/USD Eyes ECB Rate Secision

EUR/USD is in a holding pattern ahead of today’s ECB rate meeting. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0068, down 0.16%. ECB projected to hike by 0.75% The ECB holds its policy meeting later today, amidst difficult economic conditions in the eurozone. Inflation jumped to 9.9% in September, up sharply from 9.1%. […]

FX Interventions Kicking USD to Correction

As we previously warned, major central banks worldwide that hold massive amounts of dollar securities are stepping up interventions to support their national currencies. On Wednesday, China, Japan, and Switzerland resorted to such measures. The UK and India used earlier the same tool. Countries are using this short-term tool to stop the one-sided selling of […]

US: GDP Rebounds in Q3, But Details Less Constructive    

Real GDP expanded by 2.6% quarter-over-quarter (annualized) in the third quarter of 2022. The reading came in a touch above the consensus forecast, which called for a gain of 2.3% q/q. Consumer spending grew by 1.4% – a deceleration from the 2.0% recorded in Q2. Spending on services (2.8%) accounted for all of the gain, […]

Moderate ECB Policy Tweaks, Modest Euro Weakness

Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered another large rate hike at today’s monetary policy announcement, though its forward guidance was perhaps somewhat less hawkish than at previous recent meetings. The ECB raised its Deposit Rate by 75 basis points for a second straight meeting, to 1.50%, matching the consensus forecast. In a widely expected […]

Key Central Banks Preparing for Slowdown in Rate Hikes – Now Also ECB

As most observers assumed, the ECB raised its key rate by 75 points to 2.0%. These are low rates by modern standards, but the eurozone last saw such rates 14 years ago. Furthermore, the central bank indicated its intention to withdraw liquidity from the banking system to combat record inflation. Amongst other signals, there is […]

Cliff Notes: An Event Filled Week

This week, the second Australian Federal Budget for 2022 and the Q3 CPI report gave the market a lot to consider regarding Australia’s outlook. The same was true offshore, with the Bank of Canada and ECB respectively delivering ‘dovish’ 50bp and 75bp hikes as US Q3 GDP made clear US private demand growth is slowing […]

ECB Interpreted as Being 'Dovish' Despite 75bp Hike

Market movers today Today we get the first Q3 GDP figures out of the big euro area economies. Consensus sees slowing but still positive growth in France and Spain. We expect Q3 will mark the start of at least a technical recession in Germany with a GDP decline of 0.3%. We also get German inflation […]

Ugly Big Tech Earnings Kill Joy – ECB Hikes and BoJ Sleeps

An ugly week of Big Tech earnings is coming to an end, having wipe out hopes of seeing earnings boost gains across the stock markets. Yesterday, Meta plunged more than 24%; Nasdaq 100 lost almost 2%. And today won’t be any better, as Apple and Amazon also lost in the afterhours trading. Amazon lost up […]