The Weekly Bottom Line: Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Remains Hot

U.S. Highlights The U.S. economy left behind the declines recorded in the first half of 2022, with GDP growth accelerating to 2.6% (ann.) in the third quarter. The headline was flattered by an outsized contribution from net exports, whereas private domestic drivers remained soft. The weakest area of the third quarter GDP report was residential […]

Week Ahead – All About the Fed and NFP

US Will the fourth 75 basis-point rate hike be the last major rise before the Fed downshifts in December?  Next week’s FOMC decision is widely expecting a unanimous vote for one last major rate increase. With the Fed’s preferred price measure still showing inflation is running hot, that might make it harder for them to […]

Fed to Follow BoC With Another Hike Next Week

The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to deliver another 75 basis point hike when it meets next week. The move will come on the heels of the Bank of Canada’s smaller-than-expected 50 basis point rate hike, which surprised markets this past week. And it will push the main U.S. policy rate slightly above the 3.75% […]

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: FOMC Set to Announce Another 75 bps Rate Hike Next Week

Summary United States: Another GDP Head Fake Real GDP expanded by an annualized 2.6% during Q3. The Employment Cost Index moderated to 1.2% in Q3. Personal income improved 0.4%, while personal spending increased 0.6%. Pending and new home sales cratered 10.2% and 10.9%, respectively, in September. Consumer confidence fell to 102.5 in October. Next week: […]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast

EUR/USD: Is the Interest Rate Race Close to Its End? EUR/USD grew until Thursday, October 27, and even rose above the landmark level of 1.0000, reaching 1.0092. The reason for this, most likely, was the hope of a number of investors that the ECB would raise the rate not by 0.75, but by 1.0 or […]

High European Inflation Data Push Yields Higher Again

Market movers today Today we get euro area HICP figures for October. Following the higher than expected prints out of Germany, Italy and France we expect an increase to 10.8% from 9.9% in September. We also get Q3 flash GDP figures for the euro area. Following some better than expected country figures last week, we […]

Wheat Futures Jump, China Slows, Attention Shifts to FOMC

Despite the broadly disappointing Big Tech earnings, and the heavy selloff we saw in most Big Tech stocks, US equities ended last week on a positive note, thanks to record profits from US Big Oil companies, and a much better than expected reaction to Apple results. Big oil reveal big profits Exxon Mobil posted the […]

Japanese Yen Falls to 148

USD/JPY ended last week with strong gains and the uptrend has continued today. In the European session, the yen is trading at 148.23, up 0.51%. Yen slips as BOJ stays the course All eyes were on the Bank of Japan rate meeting, which wrapped up on Friday. It was business as usual for the BoJ, […]

Aussie extends losses ahead of RBA meeting

AUD/USD is down for a third straight day. The Australian dollar is trading at 0.6383, down o.46%. Will RBA deliver a 0.50% hike? The RBA kicks off a busy week of central bank decisions when it meets on Tuesday. This will be followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on […]

BoE Preview: A Dovish 75bp Hike

We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hike the Bank Rate by 75bp on Thursday 3 November, but in our view it is a close call between 50bp and 75bp. We keep the rest of our forecast intact, expecting the Bank Rate to peak at 3.75%. We expect fewer hikes than priced in markets […]