Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Central bankers of late stressed that the pace of further tightening will be guided by incoming data. In this narrative, yesterday’s higher than expected US inflation challenged markets’ expectations (or was it simply hope?) that there is a case for the Fed to turn less aggressive on its anti-inflation campaign. If inflation stays higher […]

Australia Unemployment, and First Central Bank to Blink

Jobs figures are back in focus in Australia following some interesting comments from RBA Governor Lowe a few days back. Of course the RBA doesn’t care about the employment situation directly. But the theory is that jobs support consumer demand, which in turn supports prices. With the employment situation expected to turn around, particularly going […]

New Zealand Q2 GDP Eyed as Recession Fears Ramp Up

New Zealand will report second-quarter GDP data on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. After a negative start to the year, the commodity-dependent economy has likely enjoyed some post-Covid expansion, avoiding a technical recession despite the dim economic releases during the period. A negative surprise cannot be ruled out, though in any case, the data could do […]

First Impressions: NZ GDP, June Quarter 2022

New Zealand’s GDP rebounded by 1.7% in the June quarter, close to our forecast and the RBNZ’s expectation. Services grew strongly as tourists started to return. Quarterly change: +1.7% (last: -0.2%, Westpac f/c: +1.6%, market f/c: +1.0%) Annual change: +0.4% (Last +1.0%) Annual average change: +1.0% (Last: +5.0%) New Zealand’s GDP rose by 1.7% in […]

EU Commission Reveals Proposals to Mitigate the Energy Crisis

Market movers today We get lots of US data today with retail sales being the most interesting. Consensus looks for a 0.5% m/m increase in core retail sales (excl. autos and gas) in August, partly lifted by the rise in core consumer prices of 0.6% m/m. US also releases business surveys for September from Philadelphia […]

US Rail Strike Risk Weighs on Sentiment

US equities eked out small gains yesterday as dip buyers timidly came in, but risks remain tilted to the downside with the disappointing inflation figures, and the risk of the largest rail strike in the US since 1992. Released yesterday, the US producer price data didn’t enchant investors. The headline figure fell for the second […]

Steady Post-Inflation Shock

Stock markets are a bit mixed on Thursday following a rollercoaster week in the run-up to, and aftermath of, the US inflation report. Safe to say, investors got ahead of themselves in a desperate attempt to board the peak inflation train early. The collapse on Tuesday – carrying into Wednesday in Asia and Europe – […]

US Retail Sales Have Market Moving Potential

Markets Yesterday, markets entered calmer waters after the massive sell-off in both bonds and equities triggered by higher than expected US August inflation data published Tuesday. Yields moves were much more moderate compared to Tuesday. Even so, a further curve flattening (EMU)/inversion (US) illustrates that markets are adapting to the idea that central banks won’t […]

Bitcoin Won't Give Up $20K

Market picture Bitcoin has lost 1.2% in the last 24 hours, trading at $20.1K. The plunge below a meaningful round level late Wednesday afternoon did not last long. Ethereum pulled down 0.3% to $1610 while the crypto community awaits the market’s reaction to The Merge (move to PoS algorithm). We can describe sentiment across the […]

Australian Dollar Yawns after Jobs Report

The Australian dollar is showing little movement today after the solid Australian employment report. Australian employment rebounds The Australian labour market remains resilient, as indicated by a solid August employment report. The increase in employment of 33.5 thousand was very close to the consensus of 35 thousand, with the gain of 58.8 thousand full-time jobs […]