A Timid Crypto Market Growth

Market picture Bitcoin rose 2.6% to $22,300 in the past 24 hours amid rising stock indices and a weaker US dollar. Ethereum lags the market, losing 0.7% to $1715. Top altcoins performance ranged from -1.5% (Cardano) to +10% (Solana). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1% overnight to $1.06 trillion. The cryptocurrency Fear […]

The UK Economy Slowdown has Lowered the Trade Deficit

Monthly estimates showed that the UK economy added 2.5% over the three months to July vs the same period a year earlier. The negative surprise was a 0.3% decline in Industrial Production in July compared to expectations of a 0.4% gain after a 0.9% slip in June. Production added a modest 1.1% compared to July […]

GBP/USD Steady after Solid UK Job Data

GBP/USD is in positive territory today. In the European session, the pound is trading at 1.1731, up 0.42%. GBP/USD continues to take advantage of US dollar weakness and has gained 240 points since Thursday. Inflation has hit a staggering 10.1% and the Bank of England is projecting that inflation may not peak until 13%, with […]

US: Inflation Surprises to the Upside in August, Making a Clear Case for Another 75 bps Rate Hike    

Consumer price inflation increased by 0.1% month-on-month (m/m) in August, following July’s flat reading. On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, headline inflation decelerated by 0.2 percentage points (pp) from July, slowing to 8.3%. Energy prices fell by 5.0% m/m, as gasoline prices declined by a meaningful -10.6% m/m, while energy services rose 2.1% m/m. Food prices […]

Still Too Hot to Handle: August CPI

Summary The Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% in August, but the modest gain for the headline index masked what was a disappointing report. Gasoline prices fell 10.6% in the month, helping to keep overall inflation in check, but beyond energy goods there were not many encouraging takeaways. Excluding food and energy prices, core inflation increased […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets US headline inflation in August rose 0.1% m/m, defying (commodity driven) expectations for a 0.1% decline. Year-on-year, prices grew by 8.3%. While down from 8.5% in July, the cooldown was less than the 8.1% hoped for. Core measures even surged 0.6% m/m. That’s double the pace analysts’ foresaw and that of July. Compared to […]

Dollar Surged after the Sticky Inflation Report

US inflation turned out to be wider and hotter than expected, confirming markets for another 75-point rate hike next week. Published data showed a 0.1% increase in prices for August, against expectations of a decline of the same magnitude. Annual inflation slowed from 8.5% to 8.3% but was better than the 8.1% forecasted. Most of […]

Euro Slides after Hot US Inflation Report

The US dollar, on the ropes for the past few days, came out swinging today and has posted sharp gains against all of the major currencies. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0012, down 1.12%. The euro could find itself below the symbolic parity level before the end of the day. Dollar […]

US Inflation and Its Cost to Test the FOMC's Resolve

CPI components outside the FOMC’s direct control are holding inflation at historic levels. We now see the fed funds rate at 4.125% by year end. A near 11% decline in the price of gasoline kept the headline CPI to a weak 0.1% gain in August despite stronger-than-expected food prices, and resulted in the annual rate […]

High US CPI Derails Risk Appetite

Market movers today More focus on CPI today with inflation releases from both UK and Sweden (see below), where focus will be on the impact from high electricity prices. US releases PPI which has shown signs of easing inflation pressure lately as commodity prices have come down and pricing power is weakening. In the euro […]