AUD Soars as China’s Inflation Drops

The Australian dollar has posted sharp gains today. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6837, up 1.27%. China inflation falls unexpectedly China’s economy has been stalling, as global demand has weakened and China rigorously enforces a zero-Covid policy. The slowdown in the Chinese economy has hurt global growth, but the silver lining is […]

Canada's Labour Market Sheds More Jobs in August 

The Canadian labour market shed 40k positions in August, with full-time employment down 77k and part-time employment up 37.5k. The unemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points, to 5.4%, as August’s jobs decline was met by a 66k expansion in the labour force. The participation rate also rose to 64.8% (up 0.1 percentage points). By […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets A75 bps rate hike is not the new norm (according to ECB’s Lagarde yesterday at the ECB press conference). Also the Fed pledged to set interest rates in line with incoming economic data. That said, after the assessments made by ECB Chair Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell yesterday, markets currently see anything different from […]

UK Data Ahead of the BoE Next Week

Earlier this week, cable dropped to lows not seen in decades. Since then, it has bounced back a bit, but it spun up speculation about what to expect from the BOE next week. Some analysts are pointing to the widening interest rate cap between the pound and dollar. The BOE started raising rates first, but […]

Weekly Focus

The main event this week was the ECB’s decision to hike policy rates by 75bp highlighting that central banks are very much in inflation fighting mode despite the outlook for recession. ECB governor Christine Lagarde stressed though, that 75bp hikes is not the new norm but that the ECB needed to move further to a […]

The BOJ Doesn't Want to Help the Yen

Over the past year, the yen has been moving lower against the dollar mainly because of the overall USD strength. But there’s more behind the weakness of the JPY, including the global economic downturn, monetary policy decisions, and the deflationary model of Japan. How low could the currency go, and what drives USDJPY? Here’s what […]

Week Ahead – US Inflation on the Menu, BoE Postpones Meeting

Another pivotal week lies ahead for currency traders, with the latest US inflation report set to decide whether the dollar’s relentless rally will finally cool off. Meanwhile, the Bank of England rate decision has been postponed for September 22, as the nation mourns the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. Sterling remains in the hands of […]

Forward Guidance: U.S. Inflation to Fall Alongside Energy Prices

U.S. headline inflation likely trended lower in August, largely due to lower oil prices, which fell to nearly 19% from their June peak. But beyond energy prices, year-over-year core CPI growth likely rose—a signal that the Fed will need to continue its aggressive hiking path to tame inflation. That core price growth will be despite […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: Fedspeak Solidifies Bets for Supersized Hike

U.S. Highlights The ISM Services index expanded at the fastest pace in four months with demand components rising and supply side challenges normalizing. The Fed’s Beige book pointed to a further softening in demand, while also suggesting that labor markets remained tight. A hot labor market is contributing to the Fed’s hard line on inflation […]

Week Ahead – All About Inflation, BoE Decision Pushed Back, Xi to Meet Putin

As the world mourns the death of Queen Elizabeth II, the longest-serving British monarch, a series of royal protocols will now unfold. Her majesty was a reassuring constant throughout a world that was always changing. The world will now reflect on memories of her Majesty. The financial world will see some scheduling changes but will mostly […]