Ether Fights for the Trend

Market picture Bitcoin has stopped falling but has still not managed to gain strength to rise, remaining near $20K. Ethereum remains more interesting for buyers, increasing 1.6% overnight to above $1600. Top altcoins showed mixed dynamics: from a decline of 1.3% (Dogecoin) to a rise of 2.2% (Cardano). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, […]

RBA to Raise the Cash Rate by 50 Basis Points Next Week

The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on September 6. We are confident that the Board will decide to raise the cash rate by a further 50 basis points to 2.35%. The Statement from the Governor following the meeting will be closely scrutinised. In the note below we discuss a range of issues that will […]

Global Manufacturing Slowdown

Market movers today Manufacturing PMIs for August are released in a range of countries. We expect a further drop in Swedish PMI manufacturing from July’s 53.1 in line with the drop in the euro area flash PMIs. In the US, ISM manufacturing for August should probably remain above 50, although PMIs have pointed to downside […]

Equities Extend Losses on Soft ADP Report

Good news is bad news, as good economic data supports the idea that the US economy could withstand an aggressive monetary policy tightening, therefore has a boosting effect on the US yields, and a negative effect on equity valuations. But, bad news is also bad news, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is so determined to […]

Dollar Outperforms This Morning

Markets European and US bond markets yesterday temporarily tried a cautious countermove on recent relentless sell-off. A lower than expected French CPI and soft US ADP private job growth at first looked a good enough reason for a pause in the bond market sell-off. However, hawkish headlines soon caused the forces of gravity to again […]

Aussie Yawns after Capex Dips

The Australian dollar is showing limited movement today. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6835, down 0.10%. Australian Capex falls for a second successive quarter Australian Private Capital Expenditure disappointed in Q2, with a reading of -0.3% (vs -0.3% in Q1), well below the forecast of 1.5%. This follows weak construction data on […]

Pound Extends Losses after Weak Mfg. PMI

The British pound can’t buy a break and has fallen for a fifth straight day. GBP/USD is trading at 1.1586 in Europe, down 0.29%. UK Manufacturing PMI contracts The UK manufacturing sector has been struggling for quite some time and in August, manufacturing production declined. Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.3 in August, down from 52.1 […]

August US NFP: A Return to Normal?

Last month, markets were caught by surprise when the BLS reported that NFP had grown by over half a million. But over 300,000 of those jobs came from the birth-death adjustment. It’s unlikely the adjustment will be as large this time around, but that doesn’t mean that markets won’t be once again caught off guard. […]

Euro Falls on Soft German Manufacturing Data

The euro has posted sharp losses today and has dropped below parity. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 0.9989, down 0.65%. German Manufacturing PMI remains in contraction Germany’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle. The August Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.1, down from 49.3 in July. The drop was not dramatic, but it […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Over the previous days, Fed and ECB policy makers advocating a protracted hiking cycle with yields to stay higher triggered a congruent sell-off in bonds and equities. Even with few important eco data on the agenda (except for the US manufacturing ISM to be published after finishing this report), this pattern basically continued today. […]