Fed Chair Powell on the path for policy

At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell gave a much-anticipated speech titled, Monetary Policy and Price Stability. Chair Powell spoke on the state of the economy, reiterating that “while the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying […]

Forward Guidance: Canadian GDP Growth Slowing into the Summer

Canadian GDP likely rose in the second quarter—but the trend is unlikely to last. We expect annualized growth jumped to 4.5% from the 3.1% reported in Q1. Spending on services (particularly in the travel and hospitality sectors) surged higher following winter lockdowns. And an increase in equipment imports suggests businesses ramped up capital investment as […]

Week Ahead – Fed Needs More Data

What will the jobs report tell us? The build-up to the Jackson Hole symposium last week was quite tense. Investors have spent the weeks since the July Federal Reserve meeting celebrating the “dovish pivot” and then in the days leading up to Powell’s speech, doubt started to creep in. As it turned out, for good […]

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Powell Delivers Hawkish Message at Jackson Hole

Summary United States: Economy Still Climbing the Mountain The second estimate of Q2 real GDP posted a 0.6% quarterly decline, slightly better than the first-reported 0.7% drop. New home sales fell 12.6% in July, reflecting the ongoing downshift in housing activity. Durable goods orders were essentially flat in July, while personal income and spending rose […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: Powell Stands Firm on Higher Rates

U.S. Highlights Fed Chair Jay Powell’s hawkish remarks at the annual Jackson Hole conference did not sit well with equity markets. The second estimate of Q2 GDP data showed that the economy contracted slightly less, and that GDP grew modestly. looking at an average of the two measures shows that the U.S. economy grew only […]

FOMC Chair Powell Gives a Decisive But Conditional Commitment

Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole 2022 were brief but to the point. At the Jackson Hole Symposium of 2022, FOMC Chair Powell was clear on the Committee’s resolve to bring inflation to heel and their purpose in doing so – it being necessary to safe-guard the long-term welfare of the US economy. In fact, […]

Australian Retail Sales Post Surprise Bounce

July sales: +1.3%mth (market +0.3%), 16.5%yr. Rate hikes, sentiment slump yet to impact. The ABS preliminary estimates of official retail sales showed a much stronger than expected 1.3% gain in July. That compares to a subdued 0.2% rise in June and marks the strongest monthly gain since March. The consensus forecast was for a 0.3% […]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast

EUR/USD: The Global Economy Is in Danger Again So, EUR/USD broke through the key support level formed in 2016. It fixed a low at 0.9899 on Tuesday, August 23, the low the pair traded 20 years ago, in November-December 2002. The euro lost about 485 points to the dollar lover the past year alone. Although […]

Gone are the Days We Could Rely on a Powell-Backed Equity Rally

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting wreaked havoc across the equity markets on Friday. His message was crystal clear: inflation must come down even if it means pain for households and businesses in the process. The S&P 500 tanked more than 3% on Friday and slipped below the 100-DMA. […]

Coordinated Tightening Adds to USD Upside

Market movers today Markets are focusing on discussing the message of ‘coordinated tightening’ from Jackson Hole. ECB and Fed appear to have re-committed to creating price stability, yields are shooting higher and risk assets are quite a bit lower since last week. Focus also remains on European energy price developments, with gas and electricity prices […]