Everyone Hikes, Turkey Cuts

The Norwegian central bank raised the interest rates by 50bp yesterday and said that there will be a similar move in September, to tackle the soaring inflation in Norway. The Philippines hiked by 50bp as well, to cool inflation. That was the fourth rate hike this year in Philippines. The Federal Resevre (Fed) minutes released […]

In Favour of More USD Strength Going into Jackson Hole Gathering

Markets An avalanche of Fed members hit the wires yesterday, especially during US trading hours. Voting member St.-Louis Fed Bullard argued in favour of a third consecutive 75 bps rate hike in September. In a WSJ interview, he vows to continue to move expeditiously to a level of the policy rate that will put significant […]

Yen Slide Continues as Inflation Rises

The struggling Japanese yen is in negative territory for a fourth straight day. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.71, up 0.61%. Japanese Core CPI hits 14-year high Japan’s core inflation continued to accelerate, with a gain of 2.4% YoY in July. This matched the forecast and was higher than the 2.2% reading […]

Bitcoin Failed to Hold, Testing Key Levels Again

Market picture Bitcoin was almost flat on Thursday but started Friday with a 6% plunge, momentarily dropping to $21.5K. Ethereum is losing 4.5% overnight to $1760. Leading altcoins are down 7% (XRP) to 12% (Solana). Total crypto market capitalisation is down 4.2% to $1.07 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin’s fall below $22.5K is a formal […]

Research US

A higher interest rate for longer looks to be the way forward for Federal Reserve. We expect it to hike Fed Funds rate at least another 125bp and keep it here. The market agrees and discounts another 121bp hikes this year and now only discounts 14bp of interest cuts next year from 50bp in July. […]

FOMO into Cryptocurrencies Not Coming Back Anytime Soon

Market picture Bitcoin rose close to $25K on Thursday but failed to hold on to those heights, pulling back precisely to $24K on Friday morning and losing 2.4% overnight. Ethereum continues to outperform the market, losing 0.2% to $1900. Other top altcoins are losing between 1.5% (XRP, Dogecoin) and 3% (Polkadot). Total crypto market capitalisation, […]

OPEC Monthly Report: Does it Mean Crude is Coming Down?

Yesterday, OPEC and the IEA provided their monthly reports on the oil industry. What got quite a bit of headlines was OPEC’s forecast that crude demand would decrease during the remainder of the year. With both Brent and WTI below the $100/bbl mark, does this mean triple digit crude prices are a thing of the […]

Weekly Gains, China, UK GDP, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

It’s been another very good week for equity markets, extending the run to four weeks in many cases as investors become more optimistic about the economic outlook. This week has been all about the inflation data and, frankly, it could be the dominant force in the markets now right up until the Jackson Hole symposium. […]

UK Economy Slows Slightly Less than Expected

The UK monthly statistics package showed that the economy lost 0.1% in the second quarter (0.2% expected), and the annual growth rate collapsed from 8.7% to 2.9% (2.8% expected). For the month, the decline was 0.6%, half the forecasts. A similar “better than might have been” is evident in the other indicators released today. Industrial […]

GBP/USD Slips on GDP, US Confidence Data Next

The British pound is in negative territory today, after a contraction in UK GDP. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2126, down 0.61% on the day. British economy declines in Q2 The British pound posted dazzling gains on Wednesday, surging 1.19%. The impressive climb was, however, a case of US dollar weakness, rather […]