A $66 Slump Could Follow Oil's Ironic Rebound

WTI crude has gained more than 6.5% this week, and this strengthening has a pinch of irony. Stock indices managed to surpass the highs of the previous week’s pullback and the weak inflation report’s main driver of increased risk appetite. A sharp slowdown in price growth and a reduction in the fuel component fuelled speculation […]

Weekly Focus

US CPI offered the first positive surprise on inflation in a long time being flat on the month of July versus consensus expectations of 0.2% m/m. And it was not all due to lower gasoline prices as core inflation also undershot expectations rising 0.3% m/m versus consensus of 0.5% m/m. The good news is that […]

Week Ahead – A Plethora of Data, RBNZ Meeting, Nut Focus on Fed Minutes

There will be no shortage of data releases in the coming week and the RBNZ is poised to hike rates again. But with investors still undecided about the implications of the latest US inflation report on Fed policy, the FOMC minutes might steal the limelight. Meanwhile, thinning liquidity as more traders head for their holiday […]

RBNZ to Deliver Another Double Hike, Spotlight on OCR Projections

After nearly two weeks of absence, central banks return to the agenda, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand taking the torch on Wednesday, at 02:00 GMT. The Bank is widely expected to deliver another 50bps liftoff and thus, a hike of this size by itself may not excite NZD traders. Any market reaction could […]

Week Ahead – Rate Hikes Keep Coming

Barring the obvious exception We may have entered into a typically slower time of year for financial markets but as last week showed, there really is no such thing in 2022 and I expect next week to be no different. In fact, there are a number of headline events that will grab everyone’s attention, not […]

Forward Guidance: Canadian Inflation Cooled Off in July

The rapid rise in Canadian inflation likely slowed in July as global commodity prices fell—mirroring a drop in the U.S. inflation earlier this week. By our estimate, headline inflation slowed to 7.7% on a year-over-year basis, down from 8.1% in June. The price of gasoline has declined almost 10% since July, though it remains up […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: Inflation Was the Word of the Week

U.S. Highlights The U.S. Senate passed a climate, healthcare, and tax bill known as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 earlier this week. The legislation is now off to the House of Representatives for a final vote later today where it is expected to pass. July CPI came in weaker than expected, with the headline […]

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: What Shall We Do Now?

Summary United States: What Shall We Do Now? Piecing together the implications of this week’s softer-than-expected inflation data with last week’s blowout nonfarm payroll report for the Fed’s policy path is top of mind for many. The FOMC has made it clear that it needs to see inflation slowing on a sustained basis before pivoting […]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

EUR/USD: Weak Inflation Weakens Dollar EUR/USD has been moving sideways in the 1.0100-1.0270 channel for more than three weeks. Attempts to break through its upper or lower border ended in failure each time. Even very strong data on the US labor market, which came out in the first week of August, did not help the […]

Is China Headed for a Lehman-Style Crisis?

The Chinese economic miracle seems to have turned into a nightmare lately. With a property sector in collapse and an overleveraged banking system as global interest rates move higher at the speed of light, there is a clear risk that China might suffer a 2008 moment that infects the entire global financial system. How high […]