Could Eurozone PMI Surveys Open the Door to a March ECB Rate Cut?

At the January ECB gathering president Lagarde stated that “the recent PMI numbers are actually a little indication that things are coming in place for recovery in 2024”. On Thursday morning the preliminary release of the February PMI surveys will be published, and the market will have the chance to gauge if president Lagarde’s statement has been accurate.

Bitcoin and Ether in Area of Light Resistance

Bitcoin is approaching $52.5K, having quickly found buyers after Saturday’s drawdown. Monday starts with active buying, bringing the price back to the range highs of the last five days, which are the highs since November 2021. Technically, bitcoin has no meaningful resistance levels until the area approaches $64K.

Australian Dollar Extends Gains, RBA Minutes Next

The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the February meeting on Tuesday. AAutrlt the meeting, there RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.35%, as expected. The RBA has raised rates only once since June, which has led to the markets pricing in rate cuts later this year. The RBA has pushed back against these expectations, as it is concerned that inflation remains sticky and won’t fall back to the 2%-3% target range until 2025.

Yen Bears Have a Good Chance of Reaching Lows Not Seen Since 1990

The Japanese yen is hovering near 150 per dollar, retreating from last week’s four-month highs of 151. The 150-152 area is hazardous for short-term traders, as this is the level from which the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in October 2022 and November 2023 to stop the currency from depreciating.

Sunset Market Commentary

French Finance Minister Le Maire yesterday brought some bad news regarding the EU’s second-largest economy, lowering this year’s growth forecast to a meagre 1%. Germany’s Bundesbank today issued a similarly depressing message about Europe’s N° 1. Its monthly report projected another economic contraction in the first three months of the year. With the economy having shrunk 0.3% in 2023Q4 it would put Germany in a technical recession.

How Does a UK Recession Affect the Pound's Fate?

Despite dropping its tightening bias at its February gathering, the Bank of England (BoE) maintained a more hawkish stance than the Fed and the ECB, pushing back against interest rate cuts. At the press conference following the latest decision, Governor Bailey said they are not yet at a point where they can lower borrowing costs, adding that policy needs to stay sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long.

USD/CAD – A Quiet Start to the Week But Plenty to Come

Canadian inflation expected to have fallen again in January Will the FOMC minutes shed any light on rate cuts? USDCAD higher but momentum remains weak

Crypto Market Growth Halted Amid Capital Inflows

Bitcoin is currently drawing its fourth daily candle with opening and closing levels close to each other. Such sideways consolidations are characteristic of strong bull markets, as opposed to corrective pullbacks on smoother rallies.

Australian Dollar Shrugs after RBA Minutes, China Rate Cut

The minutes of the RBA’s February meeting were released earlier today. At the meeting, there RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.35%, as expected. The minutes indicated that some members supporting raising interest rates by a quarter-point. This was due to a concern about sticky inflation.

January US CPI and Its Impact on EURUSD

Today, Tuesday, February 13th, at 8:30 am New York time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases US inflation data related to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This high-impact data could generate significant changes in the perception of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy, likely triggering extreme volatility around the US dollar (USD).