Pound Extends Losses After UK Inflation Unchanged

The January inflation report showed that inflation didn’t budge but was lower than expected. UK CPI in January didn’t move the needle and held at 4.0% y/y, unchanged from December. This was below the market estimate of 4.2%. Monthly, CPI declined 0.6%, compared to a 0.4% in December. This was below the market estimate of -0.3%.]

USD/CAD – Two-Month High Ahead of Thursday's US Retail Sales Report

US inflation data boosts the dollar Retail sales eyed on Thursday for signs of strong demand USDCAD may remain rangebound

Sunset Market Commentary

News agency Reuters, referring to Bundesbank data analyzed by the IW German economic institute, reports that German direct investment in China rose by 4.3% to a record of €11.9 bn last year. Investment in China as a share of Germany's overall investments abroad rose to 10.3%, the highest level since 2014, while German direct investments elsewhere in Asia were stagnant at around 8%.

Australia January Labour Force: Seasonality Amplifies a Weak Underlying Trend

For the RBA, today’s update provides further confirmation that the labour market is indeed easing. That said, in its February Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA continued to assess the labour market as “tight relative to what is consistent with full employment”. More updates on the state of the labour market will be necessary before any material adjustment to that assessment occurs, especially given the seasonality associated with January’s figures.

All Eyes on US Retail Sales

In the US, January retail sales and industrial production data is due for release. Consensus expects some moderation in retail sales growth, even though early credit card data suggests that consumption has remained brisk at the start of the year as well. The NAHB housing market index and initial claims data will also be released today.

GBP/USD – UK in Recession But That's Unlikely to Sway BoE Yet

The UK fell into recession in the second half of last year after GDP figures for the fourth quarter showed a steeper contraction than expected. While a recession was expected ahead of the release, the fourth quarter number was slightly worse despite December performing better than anticipated.

Will Canadian CPI Data Offer Loonie Any Support?

The Bank of Canada has made great strides in its bid to get inflation back to its 1-3% target band, but as is the case in the United States and other major economies, the progress has stalled lately. The downward trend in both the headline and underlying price metrics in Canada appear to be bottoming out in the 3-4% range.

All Eyes on the Strongest Cryptos

The crypto market continues to rise, adding 2.3% to the level of 24 hours ago. Bitcoin’s capitalisation has surpassed 1 trillion, and its share of all coins is estimated at 52.5% by CoinMarketCap. The increase in share is due to USDT and the relative stagnation of the share of other cryptocurrencies outside the top five.

U.S. Retail Sales Opens 2024 on a Subdue Note

After a noteworthy spending performance to close out last year, consumers took a breather in January, with retail sales pulling back by a sizeable amount to start the new year. However, inclement weather across much of the U.S. may have had some impact on spending through January, which suggests we could see some bounce back over the coming months. After incorporating this morning's data, consumer spending is tracking 2.5% q/q (annualized) for the first quarter.

Sunset Market Commentary

The slew of eco data from the US came in mixed. February regional sentiment indicators including the Empire Manufacturing index and the Philly Fed business outlook were better than expected. Details showed improvement across almost all subseries, including 6-month forward looking gauges.