Trump Wins New Hampshire

In the US, Donald Trump has now won two out of two states in the race to become Republican nominee in the presidential election. At the deadline for this publication Donald Trump won 11 out of 22 delegates corresponding to 54.6% of the votes, while Nikki Haley won 8 corresponding to 43.5%, with three delegates left to be decided. Haley indicated last night that she will continue in the race despite her significant defeat.

Netflix Beats

Netflix jumped 8% in the afterhours trading as its revenue and new subscriptions topped estimates. More than 13 mio people decided that Netflix was worth paying for, and the number of total paid subscribers rose past 260 mio. The password sharing ban has been a boon for the company. The only thing they regret is not having thought about it before.

Global Risk Appetite Pauses Crypto Sell-off

Bitcoin reversed to the upside on Tuesday afternoon. The price drop to $38.5K attracted buyers on the background of another update of all-time highs by leading US indices, which supported risk appetite.

European PMIs weaker than analysts’ forecasts but didn’t disappoint markets

Preliminary January PMIs for Germany showed a worsening of the situation contrary to the expected improvement. The composite PMI in January was at 47.1 against 47.4 a month earlier, and there are forecasts of an increase to 47.8.

EUR/USD – Rallies Despite Continued Weakness in Eurozone PMIs

The data from the eurozone isn’t improving early in the new year, with the latest PMI surveys all remaining firmly in contraction territory.

Sunset Market Commentary

. UK PMI’s showed the recovery in private sector output gaining momentum, but the Red Sea crisis hit manufacturing supply chains and pushed up input costs. The latter adds to evidence (together with sticky inflation) that the BoE isn’t in the position to even start contemplating rate cuts yet.

Bank of Canada Holds Steady, Recognizing that Shelter Inflation is the Issue

The Bank of Canada maintained the overnight rate at 5.0%, while stating that it will continue with quantitative tightening (QT).

Can Rate Cuts and Geopolitics Propel Gold to Fresh Record Highs?

Since 2020, the world has been stumbling from one crisis onto another, creating the perfect ground for a massive rally in gold prices. From the Covid pandemic in 2020, to the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, to the mini-banking crisis in the US in 2023, there’s been no shortage of turmoil over the past few years to boost demand for the world’s traditional safe haven.

EURUSD Displays Volatility in Advent of First ECB Meeting of 2024

Today, the EURUSD pair began the morning in the European session by trading around the mid-1.08 range, according to the FXOpen price chart, which is quite a difference from the 1.11 mark that the pair traded on December 28. Moving into 2024, the EURUSD has been experiencing an overall downward direction. Therefore, tomorrow's monetary policy meeting may provide further insight and clarity on the euro's medium-term position.

All Eyes on ECB

Today, the main event of the week will be when ECB announce their rate decision at 14:15 CET. We see few, if any, new policy signals, given the limited new information that has been released since the December meeting. We expect President Lagarde to confirm that the next policy rate change is most likely a cut, which may happen in summer. It remains to be seen whether the June meeting will be singled out as the key meeting to watch, see ECB Preview - Stocktaking, 18 January.