Focus Shifts to First Major Central Bank Gatherings of the Year

Focus shifts to first major central bank gatherings of the year. Chronologically, the Bank of Japan has a first go tomorrow. Rumours suggested downward revisions to the near term growth outlook and the near/medium term inflation outlook.

USD/JPY: Yen Pauses in Anticipation of Bank of Japan's Decision

In 2024, the yen has significantly depreciated against other currencies. The USD/JPY chart indicates that since the first trading day of January, the exchange rate has risen by more than 5%. However, since the 18th, there has been a lull, and it may be disrupted today or tomorrow due to the Bank of Japan's meeting, during which comments on monetary policy will be provided.

USD/JPY Flat Ahead of BoJ Announcement

The Japanese yen is in a holding pattern on Monday as the Bank of Japan holds a two-day meeting today and Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 148.05, down 0.08%.

January Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period

We share the near-universally held view that the FOMC will leave the fed funds rate and pace of quantitative tightening (QT) unchanged at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on January 31.

New Zealand Dollar Eyes Services PSI

The New Zealand dollar is flat at the start of the week. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6116, up 0.01%. It was a rough week for the New Zealand dollar, which declined 2% and fell to a five-week low.

Canada: Business and Consumer Sentiment Remained Downbeat in Q4 2023

According to the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (BOS) Canadian business sentiment remained downbeat in the fourth quarter of 2023. The BOS indicator, a statistical summary of survey results, was -3.15 in 2023 Q4, up only slightly from the post-pandemic low of -3.45 in 2023 Q3.

GBP/USD – Consolidation Ahead of Jobs, Inflation and Retail data

We’ll get a lot of economic data from the UK this week which will tell us how the economy ended the year and whether markets are on the right path with respect to rate cuts in 2024.

NZ First Impressions: NZIER Survey of Business Opinion, Q4 2023

The NZIER’s latest update on business conditions pointed to a Goldilocks combination of economic conditions at the start of 2024. Trading activity has been resilient and businesses are looking to take on staff. At the same time, the strong inflation pressures that have been buffeting the economy are easing.

China's Economy Likely Accelerated in Q4, But Will This Lift the Gloom?

China’s economic recovery has been a big talking point for the markets over the past year, as the lifting of most Covid curbs at the end of 2022 failed to propel growth as intended. Instead, the world’s second largest economy became a drag on global growth, as authorities struggled to get to grips with a worsening property crisis.

Calling a Spade, a Spade

I sense that the first quarter of this year will be marked by the realization that it’s too early for the central banks to cut the interest rates unless something really bad – like another bank crisis, or a real estate crisis, or another debt crisis hits the fan. Because March – where market prices reflect the first rate cuts from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) - is about two months away, and things don’t look *that* bad.