Could the Market Price in an ECB Rate Cut in March?

Despite the upside surprise at the December inflation report, the market remains convinced that the ECB will probably be the first one to announce a rate cut in 2024. The market is currently pricing in a 30% probability of a March 7 rate move. With President Lagarde remaining adamant that the ECB is not yet in an easing mood, what needs to happen for the ECB to cut rates in March?

Could Tokyo CPI Be Another Small Step Towards the Much-Touted BoJ Normalization?

Tokyo CPI report kicks off a very interesting period for the BoJ Earnings data under the microscope until we get wage news Yen’s recent gains against the euro are under threat if data releases turn negative Tokyo CPI released on Tuesday; average earnings data on Wednesday

USD/JPY Edges Lower Ahead of Tokyo Core CPI

The Japanese yen has started the week with slight gains and is trading at 144.39 in the European session, up 0.16%. It was a rough week for the yen, which declined 2.5% against the US dollar, which has looked sharp against most of the majors since New Year’s.

Sunset Market Commentary

This week’s opening session had little to offer, especially not coming on the heels of last week’s spectacular opening week including US activity/labour data and EMU inflation numbers. Their outcome and the market reaction to them suggests that the bullish bond correction since the early November FOMC meeting is over, making way for more neutral, sideways action ahead.

Will US CPIs Help Dollar Extend Its Recovery?

The dollar entered the new year on a strong footing, but soon after the US jobs data was out, its march north came to a halt. The world’s reserve currency extended its rally at the time the better-than-expected headline numbers were out, but after digging into the details of the report, they abandoned their long dollar positions as the story was not as exciting as they initially thought.

U.K. Slowdown Could Hasten BoE Easing, But By How Much?

The U.K. economic environment remains challenging, with Q3 GDP contracting slightly and the fourth quarter starting on a subdued note. Even with some improvement in consumer fundamentals and sentiment surveys, we believe a mild technical recession for the U.K. remains more likely than not.

Hard Eurozone Data, Soft US Data

In focus today Today, from the US, the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism index will be released for December. Markets will focus especially on businesses’ perception of upcoming price changes and the outlook for labour markets. In the euro area, focus is on the unemployment figures and German industrial production for November. In October, the euro […]

Shaky optimism

The US equities followed up on the European stock market gains on Monday; technology stocks gained the most and their precious contribution to the S&P 500 pushed the latter up by more than 1.40% yesterday, as Nasdaq 100 rallied past 2%. Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems were heavily hit by a after Boeing’s 737 Max 9 model got temporarily grounded amid an Alaska Air flight incident over the weekend, but apart from these two, the overall sentiment was positive at the start of the week.

Pound Looks to UK GDP Rebound to Keep Bears at Bay

The British pound was the second best performing major currency of 2023, ending the year with gains of 5.2% against the US dollar. Unfortunately, the pound’s bullish streak had more to do with out-of-control inflation than an exceptionally strong economy, but nevertheless, the Bank of England looks set to be one of the least dovish central banks in 2024.

Japanese Yen Shrugs as Tokyo Core CPI Slows

The Japanese yen has posted slight gains for a second straight day. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.10, down 0.09%.