GBPUSD Hits a 10-week High as BOE Officials Remain Hawkish

GBPUSD was falling slightly in the Asian and early Europen trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on the U.S. macroeconomic reports: Jobless Claims and Durable Goods orders at 1:30 p.m. may trigger increased volatility. Weaker-than-expected reports may widen the bullish divergence in countries' monetary policies, potentially pushing GBPUSD towards 1.26000. However, higher-than-expected numbers may pull GBPUSD towards 1.24400.

Binance Case Shocked But Hasn’t Broken Crypto Market

Crypto market capitalisation fell 2.5% in 24 hours to $1.39 trillion, partially recovering from $1.35 trillion. The pressure on the market is due to the resignation of Binance’s CEO, who has been the face of the industry for the past year following the collapse of FTX. The market movement does not yet suggest a dramatic change in the long-term view of the industry.

AUD/USD Analysis: Price at Important Resistance Block

With AUD/USD up over 5% from the October lows, some correction from the above resistance levels looks like a worthwhile scenario.

Sunset Market Commentary

OPEC+ announced that it will postpone its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) from 25 and 26 November to Thursday 30 November. Rumours suggest growing disagreement over Saudi-led production cuts.

Does Santa Claus Rally Really Exist?

We are nearing the end of another trading year and the newswires are crammed with stories about the famous Santa Claus rally. In a nutshell, the market believes that risky assets tend to rally towards the end of the year. Most analysts calculate the assets’ performance during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year when analysing this “phenomenon”. However, others are confident that this rally tends to start after the annual Thanksgiving holiday. 

Markets Daily

Bond yields and the US dollar rose in response to second-tier US economic data (jobless claims, inflation expectations). Australian yields rose in response to RBA Governor Bullock’s speech but AUD slipped to 0.6540. Today we see November PMIs in the Eurozone and UK while US markets are closed for Thanksgiving.

Preview of RBNZ: Talking Tough About Doing Little

We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 5.5% at its November policy meeting. There will be more interest in the profile for interest rates in 2024 given recent market speculation of a pivot towards OCR cuts in 2024. We think the RBNZ will show a slightly flatter OCR profile that will still convey an on-hold stance through 2024.

BoE Policymaker Pushes Back Against Market Interest Rate Expectations, Jobless Claims Promising

That's despite one BoE policymaker, Megan Greene, pushing back against that, although it is worth noting she does sit at the hawkish end of the committee having recently been in the minority voting for a rate hike. While her concerns over wages and where interest rates will land in the future are perfectly reasonable, it seems markets are more aligned with the dovish end of the MPC.

Sunset Market Commentary

US eco data are at it again. Weekly jobless claims picked up slightly more than expected (from 218k to 231k) to the highest level since mid-August. Continuing claims, the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and are still filing for unemployment benefits, rose to 1865k.

Oil: Race to the Bottom

American crude sank to $72pb yesterday, after having tested and failed to clear the $78/80 resistance earlier this week. The 3.6-mio-barrel increase in the US inventories last week served as a good excuse to sell the top, along with the rising worries of global slowdown. No one cares about the Middle East carnage or OPEC cuts. At the current levels, oil is oversold, and we could see another correction attempt, but gains will likely remain limited.