Ethereum Took $2100, Heading Towards $2500

Ethereum crossed the $2100 level, returning to the peak set on 10 November. There was a classic Fibonacci retracement with a 61.8% pullback from the initial rally. Breaking through the $2135 level will set up the main scenario of a 161.8% growth, which in this case is close to $2500.

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets After the Thanksgiving Holiday (some) US traders rejoined. For once, they had to catch up with the price dynamics in Europe yesterday. They found bond markets under corrective pressure. A poor EMU PMI causing no further decline in yields was a technical signal to the (potential) the end of the bond rally since end […]

Week Ahead – All Eyes on OPEC+ Meeting, US and Eurozone Inflation to Dominate Too

Oil’s fortunes hinge on OPEC+ meeting outcome on Thursday Eurozone flash inflation and US core PCE also due on Thursday RBNZ to likely hold rates on Wednesday Loonie faces GDP and employment tests in addition to OPEC+ decision

Will RBNZ Pour Cold Water on Rate Cut Expectations?

At its latest gathering, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 5.5%, noting that interest rates are constraining economic activity and are reducing inflationary pressures as required. Officials also added that there is a near-term risk that activity and inflation do not slow as much as needed, and that’s why the policy rates should stay at restrictive levels for a sustained period of time.

Will Eurozone's PMI Data Be Good News for Euro?

Eurozone’s flash business PMI figures could provide fresh insight on the state of the economy on Thursday. According to the survey, business sentiment both in the manufacturing and services sectors has been in a gloom-mode since May, with the composite PMI index further easing in the contraction area to 46.5 in October.

Fed Minutes in the Spotlight as Dollar Skids on Growing Rate Cut Bets

When the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its October 31-November 1 meeting, it came closer than it has done during this tightening cycle to signalling that it is done hiking.  Although the decision came hot on the heels of the Q3 GDP report that showed the US economy grew by a staggering 4.9% annualized pace, Chair Jerome Powell pointed to the recent tightening of financial conditions as cause for caution.

Markets Daily

The US dollar extended its October slide amid little fresh news of note. AUD rose to a 3-month high at 0.6565. The S&P 500 also closed at a high since August. Today’s calendar includes the RBA November minutes, comments from RBA Governor Bullock and the FOMC November minutes.

RBA Minutes November 2023: It's Mostly About Mindset

The RBA minutes contained little new information given recent publications and speeches. Inflation is not coming down as fast as the RBA would like. The upside surprise is attributed to domestic factors more so than the earlier global shocks. Domestic demand has been a bit more resilient than expected, outside the consumer sector, at least. The Board is becoming concerned that businesses are developing an inflationary mindset.

More Central Bank Thoughts Today

Tonight FOMC minutes will give more insights into the thinking of the Fed. However, it may be a bit outdated as the main theme at the time of the meeting was the tight financial conditions. Since then we have seen a big decline in bond yields and a rally in equities and credit bonds.

Exponent of Broadbased Dollar Weakness is USD/JPY

EUR/USD is already testing that 62%-reference at 1.0960. The exponent of broadbased dollar weakness is USD/JPY, with the pair drifting further away from 150+ levels (147.50). Today’s eco calendar is extremely thin with Minutes of the previous Fed meeting and ECB comments the sole highlights. They aren’t expected to change the underlying market drift.