Just Forget About Recession

Do you remember we were predicting a recession, that was supposed to hit the US and the global economy at the start of the year? A recession that would hit equities and boost bonds? Well, forget about all that, it’s not happening. And if you look at the data, what’s happening is the exact opposite. […]

Higher Core Yields Slightly Favoured the Dollar

Markets US data continue surprising to the upside. The Fed’s aim to slow demand via higher interest rates apparently didn’t hurt the consumer in a profound way yet. Headline January retail sales jumped 3.0%, admittedly after two monthly  declines. Growth was broad-based. Core control group sales rose a bigger than expected 1.7%. The Empire manufacturing […]

Aussie Shaky After Soft Job Data

It has been a busy session for the Australian dollar, which started the day with losses but has recovered. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6919, up 0.23%. Mixed Australian data Australia delivered some mixed data earlier today. The headline Employment Change for January surprised on the downside at -11,500 after -14,600 prior, well […]

GBP/USD Steadies, Eyes UK Retail Sales

The British pound has steadied on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2053, up 0.25%. This follows a sharp drop of 1.2% a day earlier. UK inflation continues to fall but remains disturbingly high. Headline inflation fell to 10.1% in January, down from 10.5% in December and below the consensus of 10.3%. […]

Bitcoin Risks Getting Stuck Near $25K

Market picture Bitcoin has rallied over 9% in the past 24 hours, returning to August highs and peaking near $25,000. The move looked like a short squeeze following softer-than-feared comments from the SEC. At the same time, we note that the optimism was concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The short-term technical picture has become even […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The empty European eco agenda obviously failed to lift market spirits. ECB executive board Panetta, one of the final “doves” standing, suggested a downshift in rate hikes after the flagged +50 bps move in March. “With rates now moving into restrictive territory, it is the extent and duration of monetary policy restriction that matters. […]

Strong US PPI Pushing Fed to Do More

After consumer prices, US producer prices delivered another hawkish surprise. PPI rose by 0.7% in January, impressively stronger than the expected +0.4%. The annual price growth rate slowed from 6.5% to 6.0%, against expectations of 5.4%. It is worth disregarding the slowdown in the annual inflation rate, as it is due to the high base […]

Cliff Notes: Consumers Bearing the Brunt of Inflation's Cost

Key insights from the week that was. This week, updates on sentiment and the labour market put the Australian consumer in the spotlight. The US CPI report meanwhile again highlighted the challenge the FOMC face in bringing down services inflation. The Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment survey delivered a sour update on confidence. After earning some reprieve […]

US January PPI Signals Persistent Inflation Pressures

Market movers today We end the week in a quiet fashion, with only tier-2 data releases on the agenda. As markets remain caught between the soft-landing vs. overheating narrative, a range of Fed speakers could get market attention this afternoon in terms of their assessment of this week’s data releases. In Sweden, we look for […]

No Landing?

The equity marathon that kept going on for questionable reasons since Tuesday ended in tears yesterday, with the arrival of a new set of economic data that crushed the optimistic rhetoric of soft landing. Released yesterday, the latest data showed that US producer price inflation rose more than expected on a monthly basis, both for […]