Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Core bond yields initially extended gains after a sharp move on yesterday’s stronger-than-expected PMIs on either side of both the Atlantic and the Canal. German Bunds underperformed US Treasuries this time. French ECB Villeroy was acting spoilsport for the day though. He backtracked on his comments made end last week. Implicitly referring to an […]

Fed Minutes Showed that Rates Will Continue to Move Higher

The minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 2023 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation back to target. On the progression of the economy, the Committee members noted that “recent indicators pointed to modest growth in spending and production. Nonetheless, job gains had been robust in recent […]

Financial Conditions Tighten Again

Market movers today It will be a quiet day on the data front but we do get the euro area final CPI figures for January, including details for different components. In the US, it is time for the second release for the Q4 GDP. The central bank of Turkey (CBRT) is expected to cut rates […]

Nasdaq Futures Boosted by Nvidia

Hawkish were the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. They confirmed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are indeed not lying when they say that they will continue hiking the interest rates to tame inflation toward the 2% mark. And the minutes show that they reckon it will take ‘some time’. How much time? We […]

Fed Would Much Rather Implement a Rate Hike Too Much

Markets Minutes of the early February FOMC meeting didn’t reveal much new yesterday following last week’s revelation by St. Louis Fed Bullard and Cleveland Fed Mester (both non-voters this year). They argued against downshifting the tightening pace from 50 bps to 25 bps at that meeting and will do so again in March. FOMC Minutes […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Another US data beat. Retail sales jumped 3% m/m (headline series) in January after two weak months end last year. That’s more than the 2% expected. All 13 categories printed an increase in sales. The control group excluding food services, gas, building materials and cars also rose by a more-than-expected 1.7% m/m. This series […]

What Does the New BoJ Governor Mean for Yen?

On February 14, the Japanese government officially nominated Kazuo Ueda for taking the helm at the Bank of Japan when Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April. This has left investors scratching their heads to figure out whether and when the BoJ will scale back its ultra-loose monetary policy as inflation continues to creep up. What […]

What Does the Current Yield Curve Inversion Tell Us About Future Asset Performance?

Economists and market participants enjoy identifying indicators that, according to their analysis, reveal the future economic performance. Among the plethora of such indicators, the inverted 2-year/10-year (2s10s) US yield curve holds a special place in their hearts as it has predicted the most recent recessions. At the moment, the 2s10s US curve trades at an […]

Australia January Labour Force; As Illness Fades More Than Usual Go On Holidays

Total employment: -11.5k from -20k (revised from -14.6k); unemployment rate: 3.7% from 3.5% (unrevised 3.5%); participation rate: 66.5% from 66.6% (unrevised 66.6%). We had expected a softening in employment growth through 2023 and as the ABS suggests the recent softer than expected outcomes are due to one off factors associated with annual leave and illness […]

US Macro Data Continues to Surprise to the Upside

Market movers today A fairly quiet day on the global data front. The Philly Fed index will give more insights about the performance of the US economy in February, while a range of ECB and Fed speakers are on the wires during the day. In Norway, Norges Bank’s Q1 expectations survey will be important, especially […]