Order Driven/Technical Trade Going into the Weekend

Markets US and European yields yesterday continued the bottoming out process that started earlier this week as investors are counting down to next week’s Fed and ECB policy meetings. The US Q4 GDP report was somewhat of a mixed bag. Headline growth decelerated less than expected printing at 2.9% Q/Qa from 3.2%. However with moderate […]

USD/JPY Dips as Tokyo Core CPI Rises

The Japanese yen is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 129.76, down 0.33%. Tokyo CPI hits 4.3% Inflation indicators in Japan continue to head northwards. Tokyo Core CPI rose to 4.3% y/y in January, up from 3.9% in December and ahead of the consensus of 4.2%. This is […]

Australian Dollar Shrugs as PPI Falls

The Australian dollar is almost unchanged on Friday, trading at 0.7112. Australia’s PPI slips Just a day after Australian CPI unexpectedly rose, the Producer Price Index went in the opposite direction. PPI in the fourth quarter slowed to 5.8% y/y, down from 6.4% in Q3 and below the consensus of 6.3%. On a monthly basis, […]

Sterling Dips, Markets Await US Core PCE

The British pound is slightly lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2366, down 0.37%. Will US Core PCE continue to drop? There are no UK releases today, so all eyes will be on the US Core PCE, which is considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The forecast stands at […]

Chinese PMIs and Potential Commodity Currency Recovery

With lingering questions on how much of an impact China’s reopening will have on the global economy, there’s likely to be increased focus on leading economic indicators from the country. Foremost among them are PMIs, since they are the freshest data, and give insight into economic trends. If the economy is ramping up, purchasing managers […]

Weekly Focus

The January Flash PMIs painted a somewhat less negative growth outlook, reflecting lower energy prices and generally easing financial conditions. Both manufacturing and services indices recovered in the euro area, bringing the composite index above 50 for the first time since last June, and pointing towards recovering activity. US indices have remained at recessionary levels, […]

Bank of England Preview

Bank of England Preview – Topside risk to EUR/GBP We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hike the Bank Rate by 50bp. We pencil in an additional 25bp hike in March, now expecting the Policy Rate to peak at 4.25% in March 2023. Dovish communication from BoE should send EUR/GBP higher during the day. […]

Week Ahead – Fed, ECB, and BoE Rate Decisions on the Menu

A busy week lies ahead, featuring several central bank decisions and a stream of data releases. The Fed is set to raise rates at a slower pace as inflation has started to cool down, putting the emphasis on Powell’s commentary. Meanwhile, market pricing suggests the ECB and BoE will roll out bigger rate increases than […]

Will the Fed Add a Hawkish Flavor to a Smaller Hike?

With some Fed officials corroborating investors’ view of a quarter point increase, Wednesday’s FOMC gathering will likely be among the highlights of the week. Market participants will be eager to find out whether the consensus of policymakers also agrees with their view on the path of interest rates after the meeting, as this is where […]

Week Ahead – All Eyes on the Fed, ECB, BOE and NFP Report

US It doesn’t get any busier than this week. Traders will focus on the FOMC decision, but they should also closely watch mega-cap tech earnings, and the nonfarm payroll report. The Fed is expected to continue slowing their rate hiking pace with a small 25 basis point rate rise.  Disinflation trends are clearly here, but […]