Choppy Trading

Equity markets are largely moving lower on Tuesday, reversing part of Monday’s gains in what remains quite choppy trade. Earnings season will continue to dominate and so far, there isn’t really anything positive to take away from it. There are still a lot of huge names to report, of course, but so far it basically […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Positive risk vibes coming from WS yesterday and Asia this morning, triggered a positive start in Europe as well. The single currency profited, with EUR/USD reaching for the 1.09 handle. Opening moves occurred in the run-up to EMU January PMI releases. Recall that markets since November reacted asymmetric to economic releases. They embraced negative […]

Fed Preview: What It Takes for the Fed to Cut Rates

Fed Preview: What It Takes for the Fed to Cut Rates The Fed looks keen on raising Fed funds rate to 5%. We expect a 25bp rate hike next week followed by another 25bp hike in March and May, respectively. A turn in the business cycle and drop in short-term inflation expectations pave the way […]

US GDP and PCE Inflation Eyed Ahead of Fed Decision as Dollar Languishes

Investors will get the first reading on US GDP growth for the fourth quarter on Thursday (13:30 GMT), while on Friday, the last inflation statistics before Fed policymakers gather for their first meeting of 2023 will be watched. The data could be a boon for risk appetite, as the American economy probably grew at a […]

NZ CPI Review: Lower RBNZ OCR Peak Now Expected

NZ CPI Review: Lower RBNZ OCR Peak Now Expected We have revised down our forecast for Official Cash Rate hikes from the RBNZ. We now expect a 50 bp rise in the OCR at the February policy meeting (previously we expected a 75 bp rise). We continue to expect another 50 bp increase in April, […]

Australia CPI: Hospitality Prices Surge While Dwelling Price Inflation Eases Back

Headline CPI 1.9%qtr/7.8%yr; Trimmed Mean 1.7%qtr/6.9%yr; Weighted Median 1.6%qtr/5.8%yr. Hospitality services most important factor in the upside surprise in the December quarter but with the Trimmed Mean coming in broadly as expected this suggests the pace of core inflation is generally unfolding as we expected. The CPI lifted 1.9% in the December quarter with the […]

Upbeat PMIs Ease Recession Fears

Market movers today The German IFO index for January is on the agenda today. The German economy has been holding up better than feared in Q4 22, thanks to a range of tailwinds from mild weather to a large order backlog and easing supply bottlenecks in industry. A further improvement in the IFO business climate […]

Mixed Results, Mixed Data, Mixed Sentiment

Trading in the US was eventless, except for the wild moves that marked the opening bell at the NYSE. The S&P 500 swung around the 4000, without any major moves up or down, as investors remained undecided faced with mixed company earnings, and mixed economic data. Both US services and manufacturing PMI came in better […]

BOC Interest Rate Decision: Another Hike?

After its last meeting, the BOC Governor Macklem said that the likely course would be a pause, unless there was a major change in the data. Of course he said it with a lot more words and technical jargon, but that was the essence of the message. Naturally, the markets adjusted the expectation to the […]

EUR/USD Kept Gradual, But Protracted Uptrend

Markets Yesterday, the (EMU) PMI’s were the main eco story for trading. Both manufacturing (48.8 from 47.8) and services (50.7 from 50.2) beat expectations, raising the composite PMI to 50.2, the first reading north of the boom-or-bust level since June last year. Improvement was supported by rising confidence for activity in the next 12 months. […]