Is the U.S. Fed Nearing the End of its Record Hiking Cycle?

The Bank of Canada has delivered what it suggested could be the last hike for its current cycle, raising the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%. Will the U.S. Fed follow suit next week? We do expect the size of its rate increase to mirror the BoC’s at 25 basis points. That’s half […]

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Fine-Tuning Fed Set to Hike Rates Next Wednesday

Summary United States: Headline GDP Growth Overstates the Strength of the Economy Real GDP expanded at a 2.9% annualized pace in Q4. While beating expectations, the underlying details were not as encouraging. Moreover, the weakening monthly indicator performances to end the year suggest the decelerating trend will continue in Q1. Next week: Consumer Confidence (Tue), […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: Slow Growth is Already Here

U.S. Highlights Real GDP eased modestly to 2.9% (q/q annualized) in the fourth quarter of 2022. The details of the report were less constructive, with underlying domestic activity showed much softer momentum. Real consumer spending fell by 0.3% month-on-month in December, with goods declining and services holding flat. Core PCE inflation eased from 4.7% to […]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast: Five Days of Storms and Tsunamis

EUR/USD: Next week: Five Days of Storms and Tsunamis It seems that the whole world celebrated the Chinese New Year last week. There was some volatility in all major currency pairs of course, but we got an almost perfect sideways trend in the end. We will not deny the importance of the New Year holidays, […]

McCarthy and Biden to Meet over Debt Ceiling

Market movers today The first central bank week of the year kicks off with a round of macro data. The Spanish Flash Inflation will give us the first taste of euro area’s January price developments ahead of the euro area flash print on Wednesday. The January data will be complicated by several factors, and not […]

EUR/USD Gits 1.09

The week started slowly in Asia, as many markets were closed due to the Chinese New Year holiday. But those that were open benefited from the positive vibes from the US markets last Friday. US equities rally, led by tech stocks The S&P500 rallied 1.89% and flirted with the 200-DMA again, and closed the week […]

EUR/USD Makes a First Attempt at 1.09

Markets German Bunds extended their underperformance against US Treasuries as ECB protagonists keep hitting the same nail. 50 bps rate hikes seem granted at least in February and March with current consensus suggesting rate hikes in May and June as well. This hawkish path clinches with the drop in yields since the start of the […]

Japanese Falls Below 130, BOJ Core CPI Next

The Japanese yen has edged lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 130.15, up 0.45%. The yen slipped 1.3% against the dollar last week, falling as low as 131.57 before recovering. Inflation heads higher Core CPI jumped 4.0% y/y in December, its highest level since 1981. This matched the forecast and […]

A Big Week of Earnings

Not the most eventful start to the week but that’s unlikely to last with earnings being a particular focus in the coming days. This is likely to be one of the busier earnings weeks with some major names scheduled to report. It hasn’t been a great start and disappointing results last week, particularly in financials, […]

Euro Hits 9-month High But Pares Gains

The euro has started the week with gains. EUR/USD briefly punched above the 1.09 line earlier today, for the first time since April but has pared these gains. Tough ECB talk boosts euro The ECB meets next on February 2nd and is widely expected to raise rates by 50 basis points. What’s the game plan […]