Bitcoin Has Confirmed a Reversal to Growth But Needs Tactical Respite

Market picture The bitcoin price has surpassed $21K, adding around 23% over the week. Ethereum jumped 20% to $1570. Other leading altcoins in the top 10 gained between 9% (BNB) and 50% (Solana). Solana has re-entered the top 10, pushing Polygon aside. The total crypto market capitalisation rose 18.4% over the week, approaching $1 trillion […]

Key UK Data This Week; Could the Rally in Equities be Supported?

With the Bank of England meeting scheduled in less than three weeks, pound followers will be enlightened on the underlying currents of the UK economy. Labour market statistics, inflation figures and retail sales data create a colourful mosaic in this third trading week of the new year. Every data point matters as the market tries to […]

Euro Hits 9-Month High

The euro is almost unchanged on Monday, trading at 1.0831. The euro is coming off a strong week, as EUR/USD rose 1.8%. Earlier in the day, the euro hit 1.0874, its highest level since April 2022. Will Eurozone inflation sink? Eurozone inflation has been dropping and slipped into single digits in December. This is a […]

Speculation of BoJ Policy Shift Heats Up as Yield Cap Comes Under Pressure

The Bank of Japan will kick off the central bank policy decisions of 2023 when it begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday, with the outcome expected in the early hours of Wednesday. Although it was only at the last meeting in December when policymakers tweaked their yield curve control (YCC) strategy, a further change in […]

USD/JPY Rally Takes a Breather

The Japanese yen has awoken from this week’s slumber and is sharply higher on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 130.96, down 1.16%. BOJ may be planning review of policy The BOJ has been in the headlines since the December meeting when it widened the band around its 10-year bond yield target. […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets With US cash markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, trading remained very subdued at the start of the new week. It doesn’t help either that there were no important economic data scheduled for release. The World Economic Forum kicked off in Davos today but there too the news flow still had to […]

Japan's Inflation Acceleration Sets Up a Hawkish BoJ Stance

Japan’s Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index rose 0.5% m/m and 10.2% y/y in December after 0.8% m/m and 9.7% y/y. This is near the peak of 10.3% set in September. Despite lower commodity prices, prices are stubbornly reluctant to fall in Japan. And this is discouraging as more than one generation of economists has seen […]

Are US Retail Sales the Dollar's Next Big Test?

Last week, it was again confirmed that the US inflation data is the dollar’s biggest nightmare. The currency tumbled and hit a new 7-month low on Monday as investors were further convinced that the Fed may eventually need to cut interest rates at some point this year. As they seek extra validation to their view, […]

Chinese Population Shrinks for the First Time in Six Decades

Market movers today Today’s key data release will be the ZEW index from Germany. It will be interesting to see whether the recent rebound in leading indicators persists into Q1, which would give us a signal that recession in Europe could actually be milder and shorter than we have previously anticipated. We also get final […]

Optimism Fizzles Out, Focus on Earnings

European stocks kick off the week on last week’s positive vibes, adding more gains to their best ever start to a year. But sentiment in Asia was mixed; futures point at bearish start. On the data front, China grew 3%, well below the government’s 5.5% target last year, but the Q4 rebound was well above […]