ECB Holds the Course

Market movers today Data calendar for Friday is almost empty. We have only UK retail sales due in the morning and US existing home sales out in the afternoon. ECB’s Lagarde will again be on air from Davos but as she was also speaking yesterday, we do not expect much news. Also two Fed speakers, […]

Netflix Up, P&G Down

The S&P500 traded lower for a third day, the US yields rebounded, as the US reached its debt ceiling yesterday. Wow, Netflix Netflix added nearly 7.7 million new subscribers last quarter, versus only around 4.5 mio expected by the market. Harry and Meghan, among other popular shows in the Q4 clearly did the trick. The […]

BoJ Clearly Removed the Sting Out of the Normalization Debate

Markets The ECB took center stage yesterday. Several speeches from high-profile policymakers were due, including Dutch governor Knot and president Lagarde. Both stuck to the hawkish line set out at the December meeting. That message was later reinforced by the publication of that meeting’s minutes. Governors were not at all amused with market conditions having […]

Pound Edges Lower as Retail Sales Slump

The British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2360, down 0.27%. Retail sales fall sharply UK retail sales were dismal in December. The headline figure fell -1.0% m/m, missing the forecast of 0.5% and below the November read of -0.5%. The core rate declined by 1.1%, shy […]

It's Going to be a Bumpy Ride

It’s been another eventful week and one that serves to remind us that while there may be more sources of optimism this year, compared with last, it’s going to be a very bumpy ride. There’s no doubt that there’s been plenty more cause for optimism so far this year, especially compared with what we became […]

Canada: Retail Sales Edged Lower in November but Poised to Increase in December 

Retail sales edged lower by 0.1% month-on-month (m/m) in November, a better outturn than Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for a 0.5% drop. Adjusting for the impact of inflation, the volume of sales was down 0.4% on the month. Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for December indicates a 0.5% m/m gain. Our internal card spending data also […]

Weekly Focus

Weak US economic data brought a setback to the soft landing narrative and start-of-the-year risk rally. US retail sales fell by more than expected (-1.1% m/m) in December, while industrial production declined 0.7% m/m, supporting the view that the US economy is losing further momentum. Risk sentiment soured and yield curves flattened from the long […]

Week Ahead – BoC May Hike One Final Time; Will Flash PMIs Spread Gloom or Optimism?

As 2023 gets underway, so do the central bank meetings and the Bank of Canada will be the next after the BoJ to announce its first policy decision of the year. Meanwhile, investors will be nervously awaiting the first PMI readings of 2023 next week as they juggle to reach a consensus about the recessionary […]

Eurozone Data Take Centre Stage as Debate in ECB Ranks Hots Up

For the past year the euro area has been touted for a severe recession during 2023. Up to now, data have failed to follow suit as they enjoy a period of better-than-expected prints. This situation could reflect the extreme pessimism among professional forecasters going into 2023, but it is evidently unsettling the market and causing […]

Week Ahead – Earnings Season a Highlight

US It will be a busy week filled with the first look at Q4 GDP, corporate earnings, and US debt ceiling gridlock. There is a lot of risk on the table and a key focal point for many will be the modest growth we will see alongside a plethora of data points that are signalling […]