Inflation Has Reached Japan

Market movers today A quiet day on the data front gives markets plenty of time to focus on central bank comments from various ECB speakers (Lagarde, Nagel and Knot) and Fed’s Collins during the day. In Norway, we expect mainland GDP to have risen 0.4% q/q in Q3, higher than Norges Bank expected in its […]

Hawks Are Back

Inflation in Japan soared to the highest levels in more than 30 years, to 3.7% in October, up from 3% printed a month earlier. It was expected, maybe slightly higher than expected, and came as another proof that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is making the same mistake of ignoring the rising inflation as did […]

Pound Fell But Closed Off Intraday Lows

Markets The UK announced a £55bn fiscal consolidation effort, consisting of £30bn in spending cuts (mainly going in effect from FY 2025/26) and £25bn in tax raises which brings the overall tax burden to a postwar record. UK finance minister Hunt’s Autumn Statement was aimed at tackling inflation and restoring investor confidence by bringing Britain […]

Yen Calm as Inflation Rises Higher

The Japanese yen is unchanged on Friday and is trading at 14.017 in the European session. Japan’s Core CPI beats forecast Inflation continues to creep up in Japan. Core CPI accelerated to 3.6% in October, up from 3.0% in September and edging above the consensus of 3.5%. These levels pale in comparison to what we’re […]

Pound Rises as Retail Sales Rebound

The British pound has pushed above the 1.19 line on Friday. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.1924, up 0.49%. Retail sales bounce back Retail sales showed some life in October, posting a gain of 0.6% MoM. This was a strong rebound from the -1.5% reading in September and above the consensus of 0.0%. The gain […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Yesterday, Fed’s Bullard pushed back on recent ‘dovish’ market pricing as he said it is necessary for the Fed policy rate to be raised at least to at least 5.00/5.25%. ECB’s Lagarde in a speech in Frankfurt today wasn’t as concrete as was the Saint Louis Fed president. However, in some way she also […]

Week Ahead – Central Banks Remain Hawkish

US Wall Street’s shortened trading week will be jam-packed with the FOMC minutes, more Fed speak, the flash PMIs and the final look at the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations. One of the key events of the trading week will be the Fed’s minutes from the November policy meeting.  Financial markets will want to know […]

Weekly Focus

After the rally driven by the low US CPI print, markets have traded more cautiously this week. US October retail sales growth surprised to the upside, signalling that the low inflation print did not necessarily reflect easing demand, as Fed would have hoped for. We continue to see near-term balance of inflation risks tilted to […]

Week Ahead – Fed Minutes, RBNZ Decision, and Business Surveys on Tap

Another busy week is coming up for FX markets, featuring the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting and a rate decision in New Zealand that investors are split on. Most importantly, business surveys from the major economies will reveal whether US inflationary pressures continue to cool off and whether Europe is already in recession.  Dollar […]

Early Cracks Form in Canadian Household Spending

Canadian retail sales likely fell by 0.5% in September, in line with an advance estimate from Statistics Canada a month ago. Retail sales have remained very strong and most of the expected September decline may have been from lower gasoline prices rather than a drop in the volume of purchases. But our own tracking of […]