USD/CAD Eyes Macklem, FOMC

The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3428, up 0.42%. Is Canada heading towards a recession? The Canadian consumer is in a sour mood. I don’t blame her, given the cost-of-living crisis and higher mortgage payments due to rising interest rates. Retail sales for September […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets All eyes were on Europe this morning with the publication of PMI business confidence for November. It topped the bar on all accounts. Both manufacturing and services defied expectations for a further decline: the former rising from 46.4 to 47.3 and the latter stabilizing at 48.6. The composite PMI rose as a consequence from […]

US Labour Market Trend Reverses

Weekly jobless claims in the USA rose to 240K last week, maintaining the upward trend since the end of September. The initial claims were the highest since August and exceeded expectations of 225K. The number of repeat claims was the highest since March at 1551K against 1503K a week earlier and expected 1517K. Both indicators […]

Fed Minutes Suggest a More Gradual Pace of Rate Hikes Ahead

The minutes from the November 1-2, 2022 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation back to target, but will likely moderate the pace of rate hikes. On the progression of the economy, the Committee members noted that “recent indicators pointed to modest growth of spending and production. […]

Global Slowdown Confirmed by November PMIs

Market movers today The main event today will be the Riksbank meeting, where we expect a 75bp hike in line with consensus and market pricing. Focus will be on forward-looking communication, we expect Riksbank to deliver one more 25bp hike in February 2023 after today, which would end the hiking cycle at 2.75%, below the […]

Stocks Up, USD Down after Fed Minutes

US stocks spent most of yesterday’s session hesitating between slight gains and slight losses, then the release of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes helped the bulls take the upper hand, as the minutes confirmed that a ‘substantial majority’ of Fed members thought it was a good idea to slow down the pace of the […]

Fed Minutes Quantified Probability of Recession, Giving Almost 50-50 Chance

Markets Core bonds rallied yesterday. US Treasuries vastly outperformed Bunds, catching a bid from economic data and the FOMC minutes. US PMIs all fell more than expected and (deeper) into contraction territory. The final reading of the U. of Michigan consumer confidence was slightly better but details are worrying with more than half of the […]

Pound Steadies after Sterling Performance

The British pound has steadied on Thursday, after soaring 1.4% a day earlier. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2074, up 0.17%. The pound has enjoyed a splendid November, gaining 5.3%. The upswing has been impressive but is more a case of a broad pullback in the US dollar rather than newfound strength […]

Market Gets into Risk-on Sentiment after Fed Meeting Minutes

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar was the best-performing currency among the 20 global currencies we track, while the U.S. dollar showed the weakest results. The Russian rouble was the leader among emerging markets, while the Chinese yuan underperformed. In focus today U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply after weaker-than-expected U.S. […]

A "Dovish" Boost

Equity markets are making steady gains in Europe and Asia on Thursday, while Wall Street is closed for the Thanksgiving bank holiday. The day got off to a decent start as investors on this side of the pond played catch-up following the late rally in the US. All considered it hasn’t been the most lively […]