A Promising Response to Protests

Investors in Europe remain in a cautious mood on Tuesday as they await a huge influx of economic data in the coming days, while US futures are also pointing to modest gains ahead of the open. Stocks in China soared after a difficult start to the week, on the hope that the country’s zero-Covid policy […]

Canada's GDP Continues to Grow Above Trend  

The Canadian economy expanded by 2.9% quarter/quarter annualized (q/q) in Q3 2022. However, the flash estimate for October showed no change. Loosening supply chains and demand for commodities spurred GDP. Exports (+8.6%) were driven by high demand for “crude oil and bitumen, and farm and fishing products”, while inventories surged to their highest level on […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Have we seen the peak in headline (EMU) inflation? No, if we follow yesterday’s guidance by ECB Lagarde. Yes, if we look at today’s market reaction following some national inflation readings. Spanish inflation fell by 0.5% M/M with the annual pace decelerating from 7.3% Y/Y to 6.8% Y/Y. Lower fuel and utility prices were […]

Eurozone Inflation Takes Centre Stage

Market movers today In the euro area, flash HICP figures for November will be the market highlight. Country figures from Spain and Germany point to an easing of headline inflation from October’s 10.6%, on the back of lower energy inflation. Signs of peaking underlying inflation are less clear-cut, but core inflation holding steady at 5.0% might be […]

Research US

Research US – 50 or 75bp? Fed’s December Checklist While consensus is overwhelmingly in favour of a 50bp hike in the FOMC’s December meeting, we do not think a larger hike is a zero-probability event. Latest rise in short-term real interest rates, weak PMIs and lower-than-expected October CPI support more moderate pace of hikes. Tight […]

Oil Prices Whipsawed With Swings of More Than 6%

Markets The by far most eyepopping market move yesterday happened in oil. Prices whipsawed with swings of more than 6% on reports which were later denied that OPEC would consider a 500k production increase in December (see headline below). Other key markets were experiencing a mild risk-off session that spilled over from Asian/Chinese dealings. Stocks […]

Yen Steadies as Inflation Rises

The Japanese yen has stabilized on Tuesday and is trading at 141.58, down 0.37%. USD/JPY rocketed higher on Monday, gaining 1.2%. BoJ Core CPI jumps to 2.7%  With inflation continuing to gain traction in Japan, there shouldn’t have been much surprise that BoJ Core CPI accelerated in October for a ninth successive month. Still, the […]

Crypto Market Cap Halving?

Market picture Bitcoin went below 15,500 at the end of the day on Monday, rewriting two-year lows, and slightly retreated from those extremes by the start of trading in Europe, trading around 15,700 (-2% in 24 hours). Ethereum is updating lows from July at the time of writing, falling to $1072 (+3.5% in 24 hours). […]

NZD Dollar Bounces Back ahead of RBNZ Meet

The New Zealand dollar has rebounded on Tuesday with strong gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6151, up 0.83%. Will RBNZ go all out? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been tightening aggressively, delivering five straight 50-point hikes. The cash rate is currently at 3.5%, but this hasn’t achieved the goal […]

Canada: Retail Sales Edge Lower in September  

Retail sales fell 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) in September, in-line with Statistics Canada’s advance estimate. Adjusting for the impact of inflation, the volume of sales was down just 0.1% on the month. Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for October points to a 1.5% m/m gain. Lower receipts at gasoline stations (-2.4%) weighed on the headline in September. […]