China's Weak Trade Surplus is No Cause for Disappointment

China’s exports contracted by 0.4% YoY in October, while imports lost 0.7% YoY in dollar terms. The foreign trade surplus rose to $85.7bn, lower than expected at $96bn. Most observers saw these figures as a signal of a slowdown in the second-world economy. At the same time, it is worth bearing in mind that the […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets It was a slow start of the week. The eco calendar contained no meaningful data and with some event risk looming, including the US midterms tomorrow, investors chose the sidelines today. US yields at the front end recoup most of the 5-6 basis points it lost following Friday’s payrolls release while the longer end […]

All Eyes on US Midterm Elections

Investors are tense and undecided into the US midterm elections today. US President Joe Biden didn’t have an easy mandate. The Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the global energy crisis, the skyrocketing inflation, a pitilessly tighter Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, rising mortgage rates… all these factors will weight on the wrong side of the […]

US Midterm Elections Today

Market movers today Today, the focus is on US midterm elections. Republicans are favoured to win control of both House and Senate, although the Senate race remains a close call. If republicans win the Senate by a slim margin or if Democrats are able to retain the Senate, market reaction should be quite muted, as […]

Caution Ahead of Midterms and Inflation Data

A cautious start to trading on Tuesday, with investors seemingly having one eye on midterm results in the US and another on Thursday’s inflation data. It’s hard to see past both of these things this week. The question for many is whether investors will respond positively to the deadlock in Washington. On the one hand, […]

Yen Yawns as Household Spending Rises

The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.34, down 0.18%. Household spending rebounds Japan’s household spending bounced back in September, with its first gain in three months. Household spending rose 1.8% MoM, despite higher inflation. This reading follows a strong retail sales report for September, […]

Crypto Market Stumbles, Losing 5%

Market picture The crypto market has lost over 5% in the last 24 hours, pushing capitalisation back below $1 trillion. The steep fall in FTT affected Bitcoin and Ether and has pulled a significant market spectrum. Bitcoin is now trading at $19.8K, with the most substantial losses coming in the Asian session, filled with algorithmic […]

Dollar Gears Up for Another Crucial US Inflation Report

The latest batch of US inflation data will be released at 13:30 GMT Thursday, and will be absolutely crucial for the dollar’s fortunes. Inflation is expected to have cooled, but not significantly, keeping the Fed on track to continue raising rates. As for the dollar, while the outlook remains positive, we seem to be entering […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets We’ll dive into some central bank comments in absence of other stories in today’s rangebound, waiting game session. ECB vice-chair de Guindos didn’t provide much guidance when it comes to future interest rates. He went with the data dependence line saying the rate peak will depend on the data that the ECB receives, the […]

Republicans are the Favourites to Win the House While Senate Race is Too Tight to Call

Market movers today This is a very quiet day in terms of data releases but we do get September industrial production data from Sweden in the morning. In the central bank calendar, we have ECB’s Elderson and Fed’s Williams and Barkin scheduled. The European Commission will publish a first draft proposal on EU fiscal rules […]