Cliff Notes: Policy Makers' Views on Risks Begin to Diverge

Key insights from the week that was. The past week has seen a flurry of central bank communications as the RBA, FOMC and BoE all met to deliberate on policy. Evident In their decisions and commentary is a growing divergence in expectations around inflation and the risks to the policy outlook. Despite the much stronger […]

BTCUSD: The Bottom is Near

Since November 2021, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been experiencing a strong downtrend losing over 70% from its all-time high. Although, sellers may not have capitulated yet, current trends are “typical” for the end of bear markets. According to the data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, seller behavior suggests that a macro price bottom is forming. […]

US Jobs Market in Focus

Market movers today Today, markets will zoom in on the US jobs report. We expect another strong reading of 220k. In Germany, we will get industrial orders for September, which will likely continue to indicate a slowing manufacturing sector. The 60 second overview Bank of England: The Bank of England hiked the bank rate by […]

The World Needs Soft Jobs Data from the US

Investors got the policy pivot they were looking for this week; unfortunately, not from the Federal Reserve (Fed), but from the Bank of England (BoE) instead. In an extended market reaction to Wednesday’s Fed decision, the US dollar gained across the board, as investors repositioned for a more aggressive Fed tightening. The Fed will not […]

A Reading Close Enough to Expectations (195k) Will Only Reinforce Powell's Message

Markets The pound sterling underperformed peers yesterday. The Bank of England hiked by an expected 75 bps to 3%. More is coming but not as much as markets are discounting (4.5-4.75%), it said in unusually explicit wording. Combined with bleak economic forecasts, EUR/GBP rallied from 0.862 to 0.874. GBP/USD gave up support from the 50dMA […]

All Eyes on the Jobs Report

It’s been another fascinating week in financial markets and it’s not over yet, with the US jobs report still to come amid some interest rate uncertainty. The Fed meeting on Wednesday left investors scratching their heads a little. What was meant to be the pivot moment quickly became something very different; an admission that markets […]

Aussie Jumps, Ignores RBA's Tough Message

AUD/USD continues to show strong volatility and is sharply higher today. In the European session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6338, up 0.81%. This follows losses of almost 1% on Thursday. RBA sees lower growth, higher inflation The RBA monetary policy statement was gloomy, with a warning that tough times lie ahead for the […]

USD/CAD Jumps ahead of US, Canada Job Data

The Canadian dollar is usually quiet before North American markets open, but it is sharply higher today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3644 in Europe, down 0.73%. US nonfarm payrolls expected to slow The week wraps up with the October employment reports from the US and Canada. The highlight will be the US nonfarm payrolls report, […]

Canadian Employment Surges in October  

Employment blew away expectations in October, as the Canadian labour market added a meaty 108k positions in October. As such, job losses recorded over the past few months were more than recouped. All of October’s gain was in full-time work, which jumped by 119k positions. There was little change in the number of part-time positions. […]

US: Job Growth Surprises to the Upside in October, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up to 3.7%

The U.S. economy added 261k jobs in October, coming in above the consensus forecast of 200k. Overall, revisions to the two prior months were positive, adding an additional 29k to the previously reported figures. Employment gains on the service-side (+200k) were largely concentrated in health care & social assistance (+71k), professional & business services (+39k), […]