All Eyes on the US CPI

Market movers today Today, all eyes will be on US October CPI print. We are looking for another high print at +0.7% m/m / +8.0% y/y. October inflation data is also due in Norway and Denmark. We expect a decline in Danish CPI inflation in October to 9.2% from 10.0% in September. Electricity and natural […]

FTX Drama Deepens, Blurry Midterm Results and US inflation

Republicans gained field in this week’s US midterm elections, but much less than they expected. While the Republicans have a slim majority in the House, it’s still too close to call for who will control the Senate. We may not get the final picture until December 6 runoff in Georgia. Less aggressive support for the […]

Long-Awaited US CPI Release Will Take Center Stage Today

Markets Yesterday, a rather inconclusive outcome of the US midterm elections initially left markets looking for a clear driver. Sentiment gradually turned outspoken risk-off in US dealings with persistent uncertainty on the reopening of the Chinese economy due to COVID restrictions and noise spilling over from crypto markets as potential drivers. US equities ceded between […]

Hope Fades Ahead of CPI Data

We’re seeing some risk aversion in financial markets on Thursday as we await inflation data from the US later in the week. It probably won’t come as a surprise to many that we’re seeing stock markets in the red considering how well they’ve performed in recent days and weeks. It would appear we’ve seen a […]

Aussie Dips as Inflation Expectations Jump

The Australian dollar has extended its losses today. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6412, down 0.29%. The US dollar has rebounded after a 3-day slide, which saw the Australian dollar climb over 200 points. The Aussie has coughed up half of those gains since Tuesday, and we could be in for further volatility in today’s North […]

NZ Dollar Jumps on Solid Jobs Report

NZD/USD is sharply higher today. In the European session, the New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5883, up 0.71%. New Zealand employment data shines New Zealand posted a strong employment report for the third quarter, indicative of a robust labour market. Employment rose 1.3% QoQ, up from 0.0% in Q2 and above the consensus of […]

Still Strong US Labour Market

Fresh ADP estimates noted a 239K increase in US employment in October, showing more substantial job growth than in September (192k), contrary to the expected slowdown to 178K. This data primarily guides traders as the most similar indicator before the official release is publicised on Friday. The ADP estimated that manufacturing cut 20K jobs, the […]

FOMC Signals a Slower Pace of Tightening Ahead, Although It Is Not Yet Done

Summary The FOMC raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 bps today, which was widely expected. Today’s statement was very similar to the one that was released after the last meeting on September 21. That said, the FOMC noted for the first time that it will consider the cumulative degree of […]

Fed Review: Another Hawkish 75bp Hike

Fed Review: Another Hawkish 75bp Hike – We Now Expect 50bp also in February Fed hiked rates by 75bp as broadly expected. Powell delivered a hawkish message, emphasizing the need to tighten financial conditions further. We have not seen Fed make significant progress towards its goals over the past month. Thus, we adjust our Fed […]

Focus Turns from Hawkish Fed to BoE and Norges Bank

Market movers today Today we expect a 25bp rate hike from Norges Bank. Markets and analysts are evenly split between 25 and 50bp, see more below. Later we expect 75bp from Bank of England, which is also fully priced in by the markets. We see it as a close call between 50bp and 75bp, though. […]