Pound Steadies after Rally

GBP/USD has edged lower today, after starting the week with sharp gains. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1334, down 0.18%. Pound jumps after Hunt axes tax cuts The pound continues to show strong volatility as the political saga continues in the UK. Truss finally stopped blaming the markets and “global headwinds” […]

EuroZone and UK September Inflation Figures

Despite all the attention on the mini-budget and the political fallout, the BOE still has to fight rising inflation. It will meet two weeks from now to decide on the next course of action. With the release of the data tomorrow, markets can get back to considering concrete data points and the evolution of monetary […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Most markets built on yesterday’s moves in a rather dull trading session today. European stocks (Eurostoxx 50) added another 1.8% after taking out a first resistance level around 3451 (July 2020 interim high) shortly after the open. US equities go even further gaining more than 2% after big, 3%+ gains yesterday (Nasdaq). The jury’s […]

Will Canadian CPI Inflation Revive Loonie Bulls?

September’s CPI inflation prints will be closely watched in Canada on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Analysts estimate a third consecutive month of diminishing inflation, but that might not necessarily be enough to push additional rate hikes out of scope. Retail sales will be the next highlight on the calendar on Friday, but don’t expect any […]

Cheaper Energy

Market movers today In the UK, September inflation figures are released. We expect headline to increase by 0.2p.p to 10.1% yoy which would be 0.2 p.p above Bank of England’s (BoE) latest inflation forecast. We see a slightly smaller increase in core inflation to 6.4% yoy (from 6.3%). Markets are currently pricing in 300bp hikes […]

Earnings Season Kicks Off on a Positive Note, Netflix Up 14% after the Bell

British efforts to reverse the Liz Truss-induced calamity, and better-than-expected earnings in the US give a boost to the global financial markets. But the recession fears, the hawkish Fed expectations and headache around a too-strong US dollar are looming risks to the actual investor optimism. UK hasn’t convinced investors yet, but is on the right […]

Fed Kashkari's After-market Comments Help US Yields a Tad Higher

Markets Markets whipsawed yesterday, lacking guidance from mixed economic data in Germany (ZEW) and the US (industrial production strong but tumbling NAHB housing market confidence). Stocks finished in the green (about +1%) but were well below intraday highs. Energy prices extended their recent decline. Brent oil closed just above $90/b and Dutch gas futures (€113/MWh) […]

Pound Falls as Inflation Rises

GBP/USD is in negative territory today. In the European session, the pound is trading at 1.1261, down 0.48%. Inflation rises to double-digits UK inflation rose to 10.1% in September, up from 9.9% in August and above the consensus of 10.0%. It was a similar story from Core CPI, which edged up to 6.5%, up from […]

UK's Inflation Sluggish Slowdown

The portion of the UK inflation data showed that the problem is in no hurry to recede. The consumer price index returned to 10.1% y/y, changing hopes that the trend had already reversed. The retail price index is climbing further upwards, reaching 12.6%. The contribution of food to inflation has already exceeded the impact of […]

Canada: Cooler Headline Inflation Belies Hotter Core Reading in September

Consumer price inflation took another small step in the right direction in September, easing to 6.9% year-on-year (y/y), down from 7.0% in August. Lower gasoline prices were mainly responsible for the cooling in headline inflation. Consumers got some relief at the pump, with prices down 7.4% in September, and are now up 13.2% y/y. Unfortunately, […]