Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Global markets painted somewhat of a mixed, indecisive picture today. This morning it looked that yesterday’s pattern of higher yields, lower equities and a strong dollar would continue. US yields at all maturities again touched new cycle peak levels (US 2-y 4.61%; 10-y 4.175%) as was the case for short term German yields. Oil […]

Cliff Notes: Global Political Uncertainty Likely to Persist

Key insights from the week that was. Global markets have remained cautious this week amid ongoing concern over inflation and interest rates, and as China’s National Party Congress has taken place. In Australia, the October RBA meeting meetings kicked off the week’s information flow. As detailed by Chief Economist Bill Evans, the document gave a […]

UK Political Turmoil Continues

Market movers today The EU Council meeting continues in Brussels with focus on Ukraine and foreign policy topics, after the first agreements on the energy front have been reached overnight (see more below). Markets will also keep an eye on the evolving political situation in the UK. Euro area October flash consumer confidence will likely […]

Next! – Who Will Replace Liz Truss?

The biggest news of yesterday was the resignation of the UK PM Liz Truss, after having wreaked havoc across all British asset classes in just 44 days in office, as she aimed to spend BIG but without a serious plan on how and who would finance all that spending. In just 44 days, the British […]

UK Political Crisis has Demanded its Ultimate Sacrifice

Markets The UK political crisis has demanded its ultimate sacrifice. Liz Truss was forced to resign after being just 44 days in office – the shortest tenor ever. The race for a new PM has already begun and it may be a short one. Contenders need the backing of 100 Tory lawmakers just to get […]

Fed Minutes Showed Continued Commitment to Restoring Price Stability

The minutes from the September 20-21, 2022 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that curtailing inflation remains of paramount importance to the Fed. On the progression of the economy, the Committee members noted that “recent indicators had pointed to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains had been robust in recent months, and […]

All Eyes on US CPI

Market movers today It’s finally time for US CPI for September – the main data release of the week. We expect the headline to print relatively low at 0.2% m/m in line with consensus, as gasoline prices continued to decline during September. For core, we continue to see modest upside risks to the consensus expectation, […]

Keen to See Market Reaction in Case of In-line/Softer than Expected CPI

Markets Daily changes in European and US interest rate markets were modest compared to what we got used to of late. US yields eased between 1.5 bps (2-y) and 5.25 bps (5-y). Investors clearly didn’t want to place big directional bets ahead of today’s key US inflation report. A $32bn 10-y Treasury auction tailed substantially, […]

US: Another Upside Surprise from the CPI Report in September, Keeping Pressure on the Fed  

Consumer price inflation registered +0.4% month-on-month (m/m) in September, following August’s 0.1% increase. On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, headline inflation edged down by 0.1 percentage points (pp) from August (8.3%), slowing to 8.2%. Energy prices fell by 2.1% m/m, as gasoline prices pulled back 4.9% m/m. Unfortunately, the decline in gasoline was partially offset by […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets With no important data in the EMU, global markets held a wait-and-see approach going into the key US September inflation release. Once again UK markets were the exception to the rule. The BoE yesterday buying the biggest amount of long term and inflation linked bonds (combined £ 4.6 bln) eased market stress. The move […]