What's Next for Japan and the Yen?

Summary Japan’s economy has been reasonably resilient so far in 2022. Growth has been moderate, although confidence surveys suggest mixed prospects for different economic sectors, consistent with only moderate growth ahead. We also expect relatively contained inflation going forward as well. While prices are elevated compared to recent history, inflation remains low by international standards. […]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast

EUR/USD: It’s Getting Worse in the EU, It’s Getting Better in the US EUR/USD updated another 20-year low on September 28, bottoming at 0.9535. This was followed by a correction, and the pair came close to the parity level on Tuesday, October 04, rising to 0.9999. However, the happiness of the bulls was short-lived, followed by […]

Slow Start to an Important Inflation Week

Market movers today It is the big inflation week with US CPI being the main mover coming on Thursday. If it comes out high again it will seal a 75bp hike by the Fed later this month. We also get CPI in Denmark (today), Norway (today) and Sweden (Thursday). This morning we get the Euro […]

US Jobs Market is too strong to cheer investors up

Friday’s US jobs data wasn’t exactly what investors had wished for. The US economy added 263’000 new nonfarm jobs in September (slightly higher than 250’000 expected), the wages grew 0.3% over the month (as expected), but the unemployment rate surprisingly fell to 3.5%, as the participation rate fell slightly. That was the exact opposite of […]

US Expanded Technology Curbs on China's Access to American Technology

Markets Friday’s strong US jobs report dashed any hopes – fueled by weaker data at the beginning of last week – that the Fed is able to ease the tightening pace any time soon. Especially the drop in the unemployment rate back to a 50-year low caught the eye. US stock markets reacted negatively; good […]

UK Employment and GDP Outlook

Markets are still digesting the repercussions of the Chancellor’s “mini-budget”. In the latest move, the BOE increased the amount of authorized buybacks through TECRF facility. That’s the intervention launched to shore up the pound in the wake of the announcement of financial reforms. Despite a rebound in the later part of September, cable has resumed […]

UK Data Unlikely to Offer Much Relief to Sterling Amid Economic Storm

The latest employment numbers out of the UK will hit the markets on Tuesday and Wednesday will see the release of the monthly GDP readings. Both are due at 06:00 GMT. Following the growing political and economic uncertainty of recent weeks, the question investors are asking is no longer about whether or not there will […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The Bank of England gave an update on its temporary and targeted intervention in the long term UK Gilt market. Since Wednesday 28 September, it offered to buy up to £5bn of bonds on a daily basis to restore market functioning and reduce risk from contagion to credit conditions for UK households and business. […]

Germany Said to Support EU Loans, But Not Grants

Market movers today IMF will publish new forecasts today and will almost certainly revise lower global growth. But it will be interesting to see by how much. Their call on inflation developments will also be in focus. The US NFIB small business optimism index is also due out. The release has some interesting sub-indices on […]

Pandemic, War, US-China Tensions, Falling Treasuries and Rising Dollar

Risk sentiment is morose this week with the escalating tensions in Ukraine, rising Covid cases in China, mounting tensions between US and China, the selloff in US and other treasuries, the relentless appreciation in the US dollar and the drop in safe haven currencies. Rare mixture of bad news It’s rare that we have such […]