What Are You Doing, Bailey?

We are only Wednesday, and the Bank of England (BoE) already intervened twice this week, to cool down the unbearable negative pressure on the British sovereign bonds. Monday, the BoE announced it would buy more bonds until the end of this week in an attempt to give a boost to the market before it stopped […]

Bank of England Still Facing An Almost Impossible Balancing Act

Markets US (bond) investors returning from a long weekend didn’t help to restore a more constructive narrative on global markets. Eco data were few, with Thursday’s US September CPI release still the first important data reference on the agenda. Recession risk (IMF downgrading global economic outlook for 2023) only suggested more difficult times ahead for […]

Is the UK Already in Recession?

Stock markets are recovering slightly on Wednesday after another volatile start to the week. It’s clear this week that investors have one eye on the US, with Fed minutes this evening, US inflation data tomorrow and the start of earnings season likely to be the primary drivers into Friday’s close. Any hope of a helping […]

Bank of England's Bipolar Policy

The Bank of England’s frenzy of emergency bond market support is rocking the currency market boat, leaving GBPUSD as one of the protagonists on FX. The Bank of England extended emergency support to the debt market yesterday to include inflation-linked bonds in its buying list, triggering GBPUSD to rise from 1.10 to 1.1180 intraday. But […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Be careful what you wish for. The Bank of England wishes to end its emergency bond buying at the very long end of the curve after this week, but markets are calling the UK central bank’s likely bluff. The UK 30-yr yield exceeds the 5% mark today for the first time since the huge […]

RBA Fine-Tuning Hikes, Changing Mood of AUD

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its rate by 25 points to 2.6%, against an expected increase to 2.85%. Previously, the rate had been hiked by 50 points four times since June. The same decision was also predicted by the market this time. In the commentary on the decision, central bank governor Philip Lowe argued […]

Nonfarm Payrolls: More Bad News for the Fed?

The latest US employment report will rock financial markets at 12:30 GMT Friday. With the Fed actively trying to weaken the labor market, the stakes are very high. However, it seems like Powell won’t get his wish yet, as most indicators point to another solid jobs report. That could inflict more damage on stocks and […]

First Impressions: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, October 2022

The RBNZ delivered another 50 basis point OCR hike to 3.5%, and hinted that the urgency to deal with inflation pressures has increased. RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, October 2022 The Reserve Bank increased the Official Cash Rate by another 50 basis points to 3.5% and signalled more increases to come. The accompanying statement repeated much […]

OPEC+ Plans Larger Output Cuts

Market movers today Today, we get the final September service PMIs globally and the ISM service index in the US. Earlier in the week, the US ISM manufacturing index disappointed by falling to 50.9 vs. 52.0 expected. However, the service sector momentum remains strong with the index deep in expansionary territory sending no signals of […]

Big Cut from OPEC Could Backfire

Global equities, bonds, commodities and currencies rallied, as the US dollar eased further yesterday. Soft US JOLTS data, and softer-than-expected Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike sent a wave of optimism across the global markets. But the downside risks persist with further US jobs data due today, and OPEC – which may announce a big […]