Markets Again in Some Kind of 'Bad News is Good News’ Modus

Markets Monday’s strong corrective rally on core bond markets initially continued as the RBA slowed down its tightening pace from 50 bps to 25 bps as downside economic risks grab more attention. It polished global central bank expectations though this morning’s RNBZ verdict (see below) shows that this probably is premature. The (US) eco calendar […]

NZD Has Responded to RBNZ's Hawkishness

Unlike the RBA yesterday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand met expectations by raising its key rate by 50 points to 3.5%. Having started raising the rate a year ago, the RBNZ accelerated the move from 25 to 50 points in April, bringing it to the cyclical highs of 2014-15. The Reserve Bank cites too […]

Euro Outlook: Why Price Caps Don't Matter

In the last couple of days, the Euro has been drifting higher, back towards parity. It comes at a somewhat curious juncture, considering the context in the UK. Though, it should be pointed out that yesterday markets jumped higher on expectations that the Fed would pivot sooner than previously expected. This isn’t an unusual phenomenon […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The bond-equity short-squeeze/risk rally from yesterday and Monday petered out in Europe this morning as markets reassessed chances of major central banks nearing the end of their tightening cycle. Today’s ‘hawkish’ 50 bps RBNZ hike for sure wasn’t the main driver. Bond yields in New Zealand even eased further after the RBNZ policy decision. […]

Euro Area PMIs Fall Pressed Euro Down

The final estimates of business activity in the euro region were weaker than expected and indicated a further business activity drop. The composite index fell to 48.1 in September from 48.9 a month earlier. Values below 50 indicate the eurozone has slipped from slowing growth to contracting economies after April’s growth peaks. This indicator is […]

OPEC+ Production Cuts Hit Global Risk Sentiment

Market movers today Another quiet day on data front. The euro area retail sales for August are expected to reflect a fall in household real income with consensus expecting a 0.4% drop from July. Also, the ECB minutes are out this afternoon. There we will get a bit more colour on why the Governing Council […]

OPEC Cuts, Oil and USD Up, Equities Down

It has been another volatile and undecided trading session yesterday. OPEC did cut its oil production target by 2 million barrels per day. It was the biggest cut since 2020, it was expected, it saw a morose reaction by Joe Biden – who said it was ‘shortsighted’, but a well better enthusiasm than what I […]

Investors Will Simply Count Down to Tomorrow's Official Job Report

Markets US data came in strong yesterday. The September ADP job report hit the bar (208k with a 53k upward revision for August). The US non-manufacturing ISM stabilized at a strong 56.7 (vs 56 expected), contrasting with the below-consensus outcome of Monday’s manufacturing gauge. The numbers came amid hawkish Fed speech from the likes of […]

Aussie Steady as Retail Sales Match Consensus

AUD/USD started the week with huge gains, but has been in calm waters since then. In the European session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6478, up 0.17%. Retail sales points to slowing economy The RBA’s sharp tightening is having an effect on economic growth. There was no surprise as retail sales slowed to 0.6% […]

The Singapore Dollar: a Dark Horse Among Exotic Currencies?

In September 2022, USDSGD almost retested its peak of March 2020. The pair spiked above the 1.4400 level, driven by the strong US Dollar. Despite the obvious dominance of the USD, analysts believe that the Singapore dollar may be the one exotic currency worth our attention. Why do they share this opinion, and should we […]