Japanese Yen Tiptoes at 145 Line

USD/JPY has edged higher at the start of the week, trading at 145.10 in the European session. Tokyo Core CPI next Japan’s Tankan indices for Q3 were mixed and the yen had a muted response. Manufacturing dropped to 8, down from 11 in Q1 and missing the consensus of 11 points. Services ticked higher to […]

AUD/USD Rebounds ahead of RBA

AUD/USD has started the trading week with strong gains. The Aussie is trading at 0.6447, up 0.67%. Is the nasty slide over? The Australian dollar is coming off a third straight losing week. September was a disaster, as AUD/USD plummeted 6.4%. The escalation in the war in Ukraine, which has sapped risk sentiment, and the […]

An Eventful Start

The week is off to an eventful start with the UK government announcing its first u-turn, speculation mounting ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and Japan warning of another possible FX intervention. Equity markets have been flashing red once again on Monday as investors continue to fret over the outlook for the global economy. There remains […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Core bonds kick off the final quarter of the year recovering from the massacre they had to endure over the course of August and September. It was the Bank of England that ushered in this period of consolidation by announcing an emergency bond buying programme for the sake of financial stability mid-last week. UK […]

ISM Manufacturing ekes out another month of expansion

The September ISM manufacturing index registered 50.9, falling short of expectations of a 52.0 print. The index fell 1.9 percentage points from the August’s reading of 52.8. New orders fell by 4.2 percentage points to 47.1, while new export orders fell 1.6 percentage points to 47.8. The backlog of orders sub-index came in at 50.9, […]

It’s Time to Look at New Zealand

Inflation in New Zealand is the highest since 1990, edging to 7.3% in Q2 2022. The currency is under heavy pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is trying to reverse the inflationary spiral. The week ahead will give us a valuable clue about the country’s monetary policy, and we are here to talk […]

RBA Board Surprises with a 25 Basis Point Increase in the Cash Rate

Despite the surprise on this move we retain our forecast that the terminal rate in this cycle will be 3.6%, with a series of 25 basis point moves out to March 2023 (previously February 2023). The Reserve Bank Board decided to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.60%. This was a lower […]

UK Government Backtracks

Market movers today No key data releases out today. Three Fed speakers, Williams, Mesters and Daly, are on the wires ahead of a batch of US job market data this week. We continue to expect two more 75bp hikes in the November and December meetings, which would end the hiking cycle at 4.50-4.75% by year-end. […]

Investors Catch Their Breath as Quarter Kicks Off on Positive Note

The new week, the new month and the new quarter kicked off on a volatile, but a positive note. European indices ended the session with slight gains, the SMI eked out a 0.23% gain, as Credit Suisse closed a very ugly session with 0.90% loss only. The shares recovered a slump up to 12% earlier […]

Current Yield Correction Could Go On

Markets The US manufacturing ISM surprised to the downside yesterday, easing from 52.8 to 50.9. The lowest reading since May 2020 followed a (deeper) drop in employment and new (export) orders into contraction territory. Backlogs fell sharply from 53 to 50.9. It reinforced the ongoing core bond yield correction earlier on the day, especially in […]