New Policy Stimulus in China

Market movers today Today’s key economic release is the IFO survey of the business climate in August. After the relative weak preliminary PMI release on Tuesday, the IFO survey will probably also show a decline in confidence among German companies both regarding the current situation but also expectations to the future amid the headwinds from […]

There's No Stopping the Core Bond Sell-off for the Moment

Markets There’s no stopping the core bond sell-off for the moment. UK Gilts remain underperformers with UK money markets betting on aggressive BoE action (4.5% policy rate peak mid-next year). Double digit inflation and the political blame game put BoE governor Bailey with his back against the wall. UK yields yesterday rose by 4.9 bps […]

What Will Happen at the Jackson Hole Symposium?

The markets are waiting with bated breath for what Fed Chair Powell will say during his presentation at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The event starts today and lasts through Saturday, with a host of speakers that could all shake up the markets a little bit. But the star of the show will definitely be Powell’s […]

NZ Dollar Soars on China Stimulus Plan

NZD/USD has climbed sharply today. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6247, up 0.95% on the day. China announces stimulus The New Zealand dollar received a welcome boost from China, which announced a 19-point policy package to stimulate economic growth. The world’s second-largest economy has been dragged down by its strict zero-Covid stance, […]

US: Second Estimate of Q2 GDP Still Points to Contraction in Economic Growth     

The second estimate of second quarter real GDP declined by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter (q/q, annualized). This was a slight upgrade from the -0.9% reported in the advance estimate released last month. The reading came in a touch above the consensus forecast which called for a decline of 0.9%. Consumer spending rose by 1.5%, up from the […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets: Minutes of the July ECB meeting provided some distraction in the countdown to tomorrow’s Jackson Hole address by Fed Chair Powell. They showed that the decision to break guidance of a 25 bps inaugural rate hike and instead lift-off with a 50 bps move was backed by a very large numbers of members. Some […]

Despite Repositioning on Rate Markets, We Still See Room for Hawkish Surprises by Fed Chair Powell

Markets “It’s time to just go to a meeting-by-meeting basis and not provide the kind of clear guidance that we had provided”. It were the final remarks of Fed Chair Powell at the July Fed meeting after which he went radio silent until today’s key note address at the Jackson Hole meeting. In absence of […]

A One Man Show

Time will stop today, when Jerome Powell speaks at the opening of the Jackson Hole meeting. There are many expectations regarding what Powell could say and how the market could react. Some, like analysts at Goldman Sachs think that Powell will lay out a case, as he did in his last press conference, for slowing […]

All Eyes on Fed at Jackson Hole

Market movers today The market will be eagerly awaiting Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 16.00 CET, where he is expected to lay out the path for monetary policy amid still significant inflation pressures but an US economy that is witnessing a significant growth slowdown. The personal consumption expenditure report is also due in the […]

Cliff Notes: The Long Wait for Chair Powell at Jackson Hole

Key insights from the week that was. It has been a very light week for data globally, and so the focus has remained on policy actions in China and expectations of a hawkish tone from Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend. On the whole, the US data received this week was mixed. […]