Forex Implications of US-Europe Wage Divide

As we all know, both the US and Europe (to include the UK along with the EU) are experiencing high inflation. However, how this impacts employees is very different. Employees constitute the bulk of consumers, and therefore drive the economy. The employment culture between these major economies has important implications of how the economy could […]

Bitcoin Weakness: A Warning for Stocks or Its Own Problem?

Market picture Things are slow now in crypto, with a slight downward bias for the second day. Bitcoin is losing 1.5% to $21.4K in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is unchanged for the same time, remaining at $1680. Top altcoins show mixed dynamics, ranging from a 4.1% decline (Solana) to a 2.6% increase (Cardano). Total […]

Dollar Pushes Yen to 137, Powell Speech Eyed

The Japanese yen is in negative territory today. USD/JPY is trading at 136.90 in the European session, up 0.34%. It has been a relatively quiet week for the yen, which is trading exactly where it started the week, around the 137 line. The month of August has not been kind to the yen, with USD/JPY […]

Euro Edges Up to Parity ahead of Powell

EUR/USD has edged higher today and is trading at the parity line. It could be a volatile North American session, with Fed Chair Powell addressing the Jackson Hole central bank conference. German consumer confidence slides Germany posted another soft release today in what has been a miserable week. GfK Consumer Confidence for September slipped to […]

US: Real Income Edges Higher, Spending Moderates 

Personal income rose 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in July, below the consensus estimate (+0.6% m/m) and slower than June’s upwardly revised pace of +0.7% m/m. The gain was led by employee compensation of employees (+0.8% m/m) but was partially offset by decreases in proprietors’ income (-1.3% m/m), personal current transfer receipts (-0.4% m/m), and rental income […]

USD/CAD Eyes 130, Retail Sales Next

The Canadian dollar is lower for a third straight day. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2984, up 0.29% on the day. Markets brace for soft Canadian retail sales The US dollar has rebounded this week against the majors, including the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD is on the verge of breaking above the 1.30 line, […]

The End of the Summer Rally?

Back in late June, we talked about spotting a bear market rally, and how the market tends to rise though summer. Since then, most stock markets around the world have risen, and the Nasdaq even managed to technically get back into a bull market after gaining 20%. Now, the question is whether the gains will […]

Oil Prices Might Cause Another Inflation Wave

US oil exports reached a record last week at five million barrels a day, according to Energy Information Administration data. Moreover, EIA reported the US oil inventory shortage by 7 million barrels last week, combined with the decline in the US oil production of 12.1 million BPD versus 12.2 million BPD earlier. The fact that […]

Canada: Higher Prices Lift Retail Sales in June  

Retail sales rose modestly in June, up 1.1% from a month ago. This is well above Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate for a 0.3% gain. However, growth was considerably softer in inflation-adjusted terms, with the monthly volume of sales up just 0.2%. Statistics Canada’s flash estimate for July points to a 2.0% decline. The headline in […]

US Dollar Recovers as Fed Sticks to its Hike Plan

EUR/USD under pressure as recession looms The euro struggles over dimming growth outlooks. The recession risk is not negligible given the energy crisis in Europe, and growth data have pointed to a slowdown. However, a solid labour market in the euro-zone would suggest a mild downturn, alleviating fears of a ‘hard landing’. With inflation over […]