Australian Central Bank Meeting Removes Rate Hike Option – Minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes of the March meeting indicated that there was no mention of raising interest rates. This points to a less hawkish stance but the Australian dollar is unchanged following the release of the minutes.

All Eyes on Euro Area Inflation

In the euro area, today's focus is on euro area inflation for March. We expect inflation to come in at around 2.4% y/y which is slightly below the consensus forecast of 2.5% due to the recent downside surprises in the four biggest economies. Inflation is likely to decline due to falling food inflation and core goods.

The 'Two or Three' Cut Debate Heats Up

The market now prices less than three rate cuts from the Fed this year, below the three rate cuts plotted by the Fed members at last month’s FOMC meeting. And even though Fed’s Mary Daly and Loretta Mester said that three rate cuts look appropriate this year – God knows why – Mester added that ‘it’s a close call’ on whether fewer rate cuts will be needed. She was certainly referring to robust economic data and up-ticking inflation!

Week Ahead – Markets Quiet Down After Central Bank Frenzy

It was an action-packed week for FX traders, with five central bank meetings injecting volatility into the market. In a surprising move, the Federal Reserve continued to signal three rate cuts for this year, even though its new economic forecasts pointed to slightly hotter inflation and faster growth. 

Will PCE Data Revive Concerns About Sticky US Inflation?

The Fed appeared more dovish than expected at its highly anticipated March gathering on Wednesday, with the updated dot plot still pointing to three quarter-point rate cuts for 2024.

Canada's January GDP to Edge Higher on Recovery from Quebec Strike

Canadian gross domestic product for January is expected to show modest growth on Thursday, while employment data will highlight whether weakness in job vacancies and wage growth still persists ahead of the Easter long weekend.

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Sitting, Waiting, Wishing

The FOMC left the target range on its federal funds rate unchanged and held the pace of balance sheet runoff (QT) constant at the conclusion of its March 20 meeting. Individual forecasts of FOMC participants for rates, growth and inflation this year strike a modestly hawkish tone.

The Weekly Bottom Line: Counting Cuts

Markets let out a sigh of relief as the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections reaffirmed expectations for three rate cuts this year – rather than sending a more hawkish message by pulling back to two. In response, longer-term yields have extended their declines, with the 10-year Treasury down about 10 basis points (at the time of writing) since last Friday. Equities rallied on the news of easier policy, up just short of 1% after the projections were released.

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

After bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,743 on March 14, a wave of selloffs and profit-taking by short-term speculators followed. BTC/USD sharply retreated, losing approximately 17.5%. A local minimum was recorded at $60,778, after which the leading cryptocurrency, in anticipation of the halving, began to gain momentum again.

Analytical RBA Interest Rate Predictions in 2024 and Beyond

In an era of economic recalibration, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decisions are in the spotlight. This FXOpen article delves into analytical predictions for RBA interest rates through 2024 and beyond, offering insights into the factors shaping Australia's monetary policy. The insights and forecasts that follow are aimed at helping traders, investors, and the public seeking to grasp the future of Australia’s economic landscape.