CHF Renewed Its Decline on Weak Inflation

Weak Swiss inflation renewed the downward momentum of the franc, which is losing over 0.5% against the euro, sending EURCHF to highs last seen in May 2023.

Why Does 10-year US Yield Remain so High?

The 10-year US yield is the barometer of the US economy. It is the basis for pricing both sovereign and corporate debt and it also determines US mortgage rates and savings rates. Along with the market risk appetite and underlying inflation, these are the chief determinants of FX rates.

Today's Focus Will be on March Jobs Report

In the US, today's main event will be the March Jobs Report. We expect non-farm payrolls growth to slow down to 180k and see average hourly earnings growth at +0.2% m/m SA. For more details on today's Jobs Report, please see our latest US Labour Market Monitor - Supply-driven recovery, 4 April.

Canadian Dollar Edges Lower Ahead of Canadian, US Job Reports

The Canadian dollar is slightly lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3559, up 0.12%. Canada and the US will both release employment data later today, which could mean some volatility from USD/CAD in the North American session.

Japanese Yen Jumpy Ahead of US Payrolls

The Japanese yen showed a bit of strength earlier but has pared these gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 15141, up 0.04%

Sunset Market Commentary

Today’s countdown towards the March payrolls fortunately wasn’t in vain. Job gains printed at a stellar 303k, surging past the 214k consensus, the 232k whisper number and the 290k high-end of analyst estimates. The two-month revision brought an additional 22k jobs. Gains were broad-based but sectors showing the biggest rise include health & social assistance (81k), leisure & hospitality (49k) as well as construction (39k).

Strong NFP Could Deepen Correction in Stocks & Support Dollar

The monthly jobs report has enough potential for the market to set the trend for the coming weeks. However, there is also a risk that the extensive list of indicators, from employment change and unemployment rate to the pace of wage growth, will feed both the dove and hawk camps.

Week Ahead – ECB Decision and US Inflation to Fuel FX Volatility

The Eurozone economy has gone through a rough patch over the last year. Growth has been almost stagnant, held back by Germany, which fell into contraction as a slowdown in global trade suppressed demand for exports and crippled the nation’s manufacturing sector.

A First Fed Rate Cut in June Seems Highly Premature

This hope for evidence de facto won’t be evident as base effects suggest a further upward drift in inflation in the next five months. A first Fed rate cut in June seems highly premature. US yields this morning add between 4 bps (2-y) and 0.5 bps (10-y).

EUR/USD Analysis: Price Today Has Set Its Minimum Since the Beginning of March

This prospect is supported by the assumption that medium-term traders who opened long positions on March 20 in response to the growth of EUR/USD (shown by arrow No. 2) are now actively closing positions, creating additional pressure.