Preview of RBNZ: Nothing to See Here

The information flow has been very light since the February Monetary Policy Statement - hence we don't think the RBNZ's monetary policy stance will have changed much since February. We expect no change in the OCR, with the decision to be accompanied by a relatively short statement that suggests little change in the OCR outlook from that communicated in the February Statement. We expect the RBNZ will:

A Trading Playbook on Japanese FX Intervention

The Japanese yen absorbed heavy damage this year, briefly falling to a 34-year low against the US dollar. Selling pressures persisted even after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates out of negative territory, leading authorities in Tokyo to threaten another round of FX intervention to defend the currency.

Rate Decision in Poland

In Poland, the Polish central bank wraps up its two-day monetary policy meeting. We expect an unchanged policy rate at 5.75%, in line with consensus.

Euro, Sterling Bears Bulldozed by Fed Doves

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell reiterated yesterday that the Fed is not in a rush to cut rates but that it will cut sometime this year and that the recent jump in inflation didn’t ‘materially’ change their policy outlook. The latter was enough to send the market higher with joy.

ISM-Inspired Treasury Gains Went Hand-in-hand With Profit Taking on USD Long

The dollar already bumped into resistance on Tuesday (DXY YTD high at 105; USD/JPY 152; EUR/USD low 1.07). The ISM-inspired Treasury gains went hand-in-hand with some profit taking on USD long positions. DXY fell from 104.70 towards 104.25 with EUR/USD closing at 1.0836 from an open at 1.0770. Main European and US markets stock markets ended with gains of up to 0.5%.

US Stock Market Awaits the Publication of NFP And Unemployment Data

Important events of this week for investors and traders in the US stock market could be the employment news, which will be published tomorrow at 15:30 GMT+3:→ non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for March. According to CNN, analysts expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 192,500 in March. NFP for February was 275,000, according to FactSet.

Relatively Calm Bitcoin

Bitcoin ended Wednesday where it started the day, trading at $65.5K. Enthusiasts continue to buy back the first cryptocurrency on dips closer to $65K. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s inability to rise is alarming, although the day before, we saw a weaker dollar and stronger stock indices, which is fuelling risk appetite.

EUR/USD Extends Gains as Euro Services PMIs Improve

The euro is on a bit of a roll and has pushed slightly higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0857, up 0.19%. The euro is up for a third straight day and has climbed 0.8% since Monday.

Sunset Market Commentary

What a difference a revision makes… So often overlooked final figures of monthly (EMU) PMI broke headlines today. The euro area economy returned to growth for the first time since May 2023 after an upwardly adjusted composite PMI (50.3 from 49.9). Further growth expectations are the most optimistic since the start of the Russian invasion in Ukraine back in February 2022.

Swiss Franc Dips as Swiss Inflation Falls

The Swiss franc is lower on Thursday. Early in the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9050, up 0.24%. It has been a bumpy year for the Swiss franc, which is down 7.7% against the US dollar and is trading at its lowest level since November.