USD/JPY Sharply Lower Ahead of Kuroda's Last Meeting

The Japanese yen is showing strength on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.27, down 0.79%. Kuroda’s last hurrah After 10 years at the helm of the Bank of Japan, Governor Kuroda chairs his final policy meeting on Friday. Traditionally, BoJ governors have not made policy changes at their last meeting, and […]

Cautious Ahead of Jobs Report

It would appear investors are taking a cautious stance ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, a little spooked by Powell’s comments in Congress and fearful of being caught on the wrong side of another hot jobs report. That’s clearly the danger at this point, that we get another hot report that confirms January was no blip […]

Chinese Deflation as Good News

China’s consumer price growth fell to 1.0% y/y, a sharp slowdown from 2.1% y/y and against expectations of 1.9% y/y. Producer prices continued their deflationary slide in February, falling 1.4% y/y, versus -0.8% in the previous month and a slightly stronger than expected 1.3%. The opening up of the Chinese economy has a deflationary effect […]

February NFP and Chance of a Surprise

Following Fed Chair Powell’s comments on Capitol Hill last Tuesday, there is a lot of expectation around the upcoming NFP figures. Powell essentially said that if economic data came in well above expectations, then there would be a 50bps hike at the next FOMC meeting. He stressed that the decision hasn’t been made yet (otherwise, […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Where to begin. There’s so much that didn’t happen today. Let’s take a look at equity markets. European stocks opened in red. The likes of the Euro Stoxx 50 (-0.25%) were off intraday lows but never left negative territory. Wall Street loses between 0.1-0.5% in a session devoid of important news or data. We […]

Yen Edges Lower, Eyes on Tokyo Core CPI

It has been a quiet week for the Japanese yen, but USD/JPY is showing some strength on Thursday and has pushed above the 137 line for the first time this year. Will Tokyo Core CPI continue to rise? Japan’s inflation indicators have continued to point upwards. We’ll get a look at Tokyo Core CPI for […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets German bonds initially sold off further going into the publication of February European CPI. But ECB’s Lagarde held a speech first. She sounded determined to keep rates at a restrictive enough level (without specifying how high this would be) to tame inflation. Easing less than expected, from 8.6% y/y to 8.5%, headline price pressures […]

Will Sunak's Deal Put Brexit Row to Bed?

Rishi Sunak is making his first Brexit debut in efforts to resolve the long-running dispute with the EU over trade rules in Northern Ireland. While hopes for a new breakthrough pushed the British pound in the green territory this week, the reaction was relatively modest, suggesting that investors are being prudent by waiting for more clarity to […]

ECB Preview

Underlying inflation pressures have yet to improve for the ECB to signal an end to its policy rate hikes. Since the February meeting, the economic outlook and labour market still show resilience, pushing the eventual end of ECB hiking further out. Accordingly we adjust our expectations for the policy path from ECB and now expect […]

Cliff Notes: Consumer is Critical to the Outlook

Key insights from the week that was. This week, Australia’s Q4 GDP report and monthly consumer/housing releases provided a broad update on the health of Australia’s economy and its outlook. Offshore, the diverging prospects of the US and China were on display. Q4 GDP for Australia came in well below the market’s expectation at 0.5%, […]