ECB Has a Lot More Hiking to Do

Market movers today Today we get service PMIs for a number of countries. After falling in most of 2022, they have generally shown signs of bottoming, as is the case with manufacturing PMIs. In the US, ISM non-manufacturing is also due. It has moved higher the past two months from very low levels. Focus will […]

Inflation, Central Bank Hawks, and China

The Eurozone’s flash CPI estimate looked as ugly as it smelled beforehand. Inflation in the Eurozone is estimated to have barely eased to 8.5% from 8.6% printed a month earlier, while core inflation advanced to a record of 5.6%, from 5.3% printed previously. Inflation has not been transitory, but disinflation could be. The latest CPI […]

Market Focus Will be on US Services ISM

Markets EMU February CPI data logically summarized/confirmed evidence from national data. At 0.8% M/M and 8.5% Y/Y, EMU headline inflation ‘slowed’ (8.6% in January) far less than hoped for. Core inflation even set a new high, rising from 5.3% to 5.6%. In the run-up to the CPI release, ECB Lagarde already reiterated that the ECB […]

USD/JPY Dips as Tokyo Core CPI Slows

The Japanese yen has gained ground on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.17, down 0.44%. Tokyo Core CPI eases  There was some positive news on the inflation front, as Tokyo Core CPI for February slowed for the first time since January 2022. The indicator was expected to rise from 4.3% to […]

Silvergate Triggered Yet Another Mini Crypto Sell-off

Market picture Bitcoin plunged more than 6% to $22.0K early this morning. The plunge into this area came as a market reaction to the potential bankruptcy of Silvergate. The news triggered a wave of stop orders on fears that the situation could cause a domino effect in the industry, as with FTX earlier in the […]

Ending the Week on a High

Stock markets are poised to end the week on a positive note although broadly speaking, it doesn’t seem we’ve progressed in either direction over recent weeks. Trading has become very choppy as the economic data has turned more problematic and interest rate expectations have flipped. Investors are now waiting for evidence that the January figures […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets: ECB members hit the wire today. ECB Wunsch started off by saying that rates of 4% would not be excluded if the central bank doesn’t get clear signals that core inflation is going down. ECB Vasle followed by talking about additional increases (plural) after the flagged 50 bps March rate hike. Vice-governor de Guindos […]

Let It Sink In – Markets Hope Data Will Reflect Tightening

USD/JPY rallies as BoJ may stay dovish The Japanese yen weakens as the upcoming BoJ team pledges to continue monetary easing. New governor nominee Kazuo Ueda has so far brushed aside any talk of an immediate change to the policy, tempering expectations of a disruptive stance from his predecessor. There could still be an upside […]

What to Expect from China's National People's Congress

Sunday marks the start of the annual, week-long National People’s Congress (NPC) in China. That’s when all the country’s leaders get together to lay out key national policies for the rest of the year and beyond. This will be the first time since the end of the covid restrictions that the NPC is held, and […]

Weekly Focus

Markets remain caught between the soft-landing vs overheating narrative. On the one hand, the challenge comes from too high inflation. The US ISM manufacturing prices paid index took a notable jump higher in February, suggesting that producer prices are rising again. In the euro area, February HICP inflation figures came in red hot. While headline […]