Eurozone Credit Slowdown

Money supply and lending in the eurozone are slowing faster than expected, indicating an imminent economic contraction. Data released on Monday morning pointed to a slowdown in new lending, coinciding with the start of the euro zone’s interest rate hike cycle. Loans rose by 3.6% year-on-year, compared with 3.8% in the previous month and an […]

United Kingdom Economy Still Likely to Underwhelm in 2023

Summary While there have been some mildly encouraging developments in the recent U.K. data flow, the outlook for the British economy remains distinctly subpar. A flat Q4 GDP outcome has been followed by improving confidence surveys early this year. However, with prior price increases likely to pose lingering challenges to household purchasing power, we still […]

EU and UK Strike Brexit Deal on Northern Ireland

Market movers today Today we get flash inflation prints from France and Spain for February, which will give us the first indication of euro area inflation this month. Consensus looks for unchanged headline inflation in both France and Spain at 7.0% y/y and 5.9%, respectively. Given the recent rise in yields, we would likely get […]

EU and UK Struck a Deal to Reform Northern Irish Protocol

Markets The EU and the UK struck a deal to reform the Northern Irish Protocol. Dubbed the Windsor Framework, the agreement entails a so-called green lane in the Irish Sea with significantly reduced checks for goods coming from the UK mainland and destined to stay in Northern Ireland. Goods continuing into Ireland, part of the […]

Crypto Market Bides Its Time

Market Picture Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has fallen 0.25% to $23.4K. The total capitalisation of the crypto market has fallen 0.3% to $1.07 trillion. The slight decline came despite a rebound in global stock indices. The crypto market has seen minimal changes since the start of the day, indicating a wait-and-see attitude. The […]

Risk Sentiment Wavers On Fed Fears

Asian shares were a mixed bag on Tuesday as fears over rising U.S. interest rates hit overall sentiment in the region. European futures are pointing to a positive open this morning, tracking the modest gains on Wall Street overnight. However, a sense of caution continues to linger across financial markets as concerns over further interest […]

AUD/USD Eyes CPI, GDP

The Australian dollar remains under pressure and has edged lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD dropped below the 0.67 line on Monday for the first time since Jan. 3. Australian retail sales bounce back Australian retail sales jumped 1.9% m/m in January, following an upwardly revised 4% decline in December and beating the consensus of 1.5%. The […]

Canadian Dollar Drifting as GDP Looms

Canadian GDP expected to slow in Q4 It’s a very light data calendar for Canadian releases this week, with today’s GDP report the sole tier-1 event. Canada’s economy is expected to slow to 1.5% y/y in the fourth quarter, following a solid 2.9% gain in Q3. A slowdown in economic activity is what the Bank […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Today’s trading session started with a bang: national European inflation numbers triggered a fresh sell-off on bond markets. French inflation (EU harmonized) accelerated to 1% m/m with the y/y-reading printing at a new high of 7.2% (vs 7% in January). Details showed positive contribution from all categories, with food prices (1.4% m/m & 14.5% […]

First Impressions: Australian Q4 GDP

Australia’s economy expanded by a modest 0.5%, which was softer than anticipated. Conditions were soft in late 2022, with the adverse impacts of high inflation and sharply higher interest rates becoming apparent. Consumer spending grew by only 0.3%, while total domestic demand stalled. . The Australian economy expanded by a modest 0.5% in the December […]