RBA to Hike Rates Again But Future Path Uncertain after Mixed Data

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely anticipated to raise the cash rate for the 10th consecutive meeting on Tuesday as it battles to get inflation down. Having flip-flopped between hawkish and dovish inclinations lately, the RBA may struggle again to get its communication right amid some confusing signals on inflation and the economy. This […]

Week Ahead – Will BoJ Shock Markets Ahead of US Payrolls?

Market participants are in for a wild ride, as the coming week is loaded with promising events. The ball will get rolling with central bank meetings in Australia and Canada. Those will serve as appetizers for the Bank of Japan’s decision, which might be a close call, feeding volatility in the yen. In the US, […]

Week Ahead – A Pivotal Moment

US The US has a very busy week ahead.  The two main events are Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress and the nonfarm payroll report.  Powell’s two days at Capitol Hill will undoubtedly draw scrutiny from lawmakers as more tightening will raise the risk this economy is recession bound.  Traders will look to see […]

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Global Recession Risks Are Receding

Summary United States: First Looks Point to February Activity Holding Firm Data this week did little to alter the picture that, to the extent the underlying trend in the economy is softening, it is not weakening nearly enough to put a quick end to inflation. Manufacturing activity is contracting only gradually, while the service sector […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: Higher Rates Abound

U.S. Highlights Pending home sales rose 8.1% in January, however with mortgage rates now back up around 7% this is unlikely to be sustained moving forward. The ISM Manufacturing Index improved for the first time in six months but continued to indicate contraction in the sector. Fed speakers this week noted the upside risk to […]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast

EUR/USD: Pause in the 1.0600 Zone On Thursday, March 02, the DXY dollar index broke again through the bar at 105.00 points but could not stay there. As usual, the dollar was supported by an increase in US government bond yields. The yield on 10-year securities rose to its high since November 10 at 4.09%, […]

China's 5% Growth Target Weigh on Energy and Commodity

There are plenty of reasons that should push equities lower, but equities continue trending higher. Both European and American stocks closed last week with gains, and futures hint at a positive start to the week despite China’s announcement of a modest 5% growth target. But the 5% growth target raises concerns about the amount of […]

Commodities Trading on Back-foot Following New China Growth Target

Market movers today We start the week in a quiet fashion on the data front amid markets digesting the take-aways from China’s National People’s Congress over the weekend. In the euro area, retail sales for January and Sentix investor confidence for March are on the agenda. After the sharp decline in retail spending in December, […]

ECB and Fed Speakers Maintained 'Higher for Longer Mantra'

Markets On Friday, US and European yields envisaged an end of week countermove. The correction occurred as even ECB and Fed speakers maintained the ‘higher for longer mantra’. ECB’s Wunch indicated that a 4% policy rate isn’t excluded if (core) inflation doesn’t cool. Other ECB members (Vasle, de Guindos, Muller) were less specific but also […]

Is It Time for Fed Chair Powell to Appear in a Hawkish Suit?

Market pricing about the Fed’s future course of action has dramatically changed lately, following a streak of upbeat US economic data and hotter-than-expected inflation numbers for January. Several Fed officials have become more vocal about the need for more aggressive action hereafter, but a big question is whether Fed Chair Powell has ditched his disinflationary […]