Dollar Eyes Fed Minutes and PCE Inflation after Lacklustre Rebound

The US dollar has come off the back foot after a series of strong data and hawkish Fed talk, but is there scope for a more substantial recovery? The minutes of the Fed’s January 31-February 1 meeting out on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) will guide traders through to Friday when the all-important PCE inflation figures are […]

First Impressions: RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement February 2023

The Reserve Bank raised the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%, and maintained its projection of a 5.5% peak in the coming months. RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, February 2023 The Reserve Bank increased the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%, as was expected by most forecasters. Surprisingly, there was […]

Positive Data Surprises Continue

Market movers today Today, we get the final January CPI data from Germany and IFO index for February. FOMC minutes will be released tonight but considering the upside surprises in US data lately and the hawkish remarks by several FOMC members, the message from the minutes may well be outdated by now. The 60 second […]

Poor Appetite ahead of FOMC Minutes

US stocks now join the treasury selloff, and the US dollar pushes higher on the back of the increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. The US 2-year yield was again above the 3.70% mark, whereas the 10-year yield flirted with the 4% for the first time since last November. The preliminary services PMI in the […]

Outcome of Fed March Meeting Becoming Fat-Tailed Towards a Possible 50 bps Rate Hike

Markets US Treasuries went into full sell-off mode again yesterday following February US PMI’s. The composite PMI returned above the 50 boom/bust mark again for the first time since June 2022, surging from 46.8 to 50.2 (vs 47.5 consensus). The spike came on account of a similar move in the services gauge while the manufacturing […]

Will USD Set a New High in 2023?

The US dollar index has lost around 12% since October 2022 till its local low at the end of January 2023. One of the major reasons for the devaluation was the oil prices decline. Combined with the 4.50% Fed rate hike since the beginning of 2022 and the launch of QT, this led to a […]

New Zealand Dollar Pares Gains after RBNZ

The New Zealand dollar jumped after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting but has pared most of these gains. In the European session, NZD/USD is almost unchanged at 0.6216. RBNZ hikes by 50 basis points The RBNZ delivered a 50 bp rate increase today, bringing the cash rate to 4.75%, its highest level since […]

Bullard's Projections Suggest Fed's Work is Almost Done

US stock turned positive after Fed’s Bullard stated that markets might be over-pricing US recession risk. ​ Bullard said his projections for rates are to reach 5.375%, which implies 75 bps more in rate increases. ​ Bullard is one of the more hawkish members, so if he thinks we only have a little ways to […]

RBNZ Warns It Is Not Done With Tightening

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its cash rate by 50 points to 4.75% early in the day. The rate has been raised by 425 points over the last ten meetings since October 2021, the sharpest uninterrupted hike in modern history. In an accompanying commentary, the Bank forecasted a hike to 5.5% by September […]

Aussie Dips After Soft Wage Data

The Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6824, down 0.47%. Wage growth misses forecast Australian wage growth was short of the forecast, with a gain of 0.8% q/q in Q4 2020. This was down from 1.1% in Q3 and below the forecast of 1.0%. Annual […]