Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast

EUR/USD: FOMC Protocol Strengthens the Dollar Macroeconomic statistics in both the US and the Eurozone look mixed. In both regions, inflation is slowing down (which is good), but GDP growth is also decreasing (which is bad for the economy). According to the US Department of Commerce, the pace of consumer spending growth in the country […]

Australian Q4 Business Indicators Survey: Inventories, Sales, and Company Profits; First Impressions

Inventory levels decline, following a sharp run-up, confirming a large subtraction from Q4 growth. Sales reportedly stalled, pointing to sluggish conditions. Whereas profits rose strongly. Inventories declined in the December quarter, contracting by 0.2%. The Q4 fall in inventories was not as sharp as we anticipated, Westpac f/c -1.0% and market median flat (range, -1.0% […]

NZ First Impressions: Retail Trade December Quarter 2022

Nominal spending levels are continuing to rise. However, increases in prices mean we’re getting less for each dollar we spend. Q4 real retail sales (volumes): -0.6% (Prev: +0.6%) Westpac f/c: -1.7%, Market +0.2% Q4 nominal sales level: +1.7% (Prev: +3.4%) Detail Households are splashing out more cash, but we’re getting less bang for our buck. […]

Inflation Fears Linger

Market movers today Focus this week will turn to euro area Flash HICP inflation for February on Thursday. US ISM manufacturing and Chinese PMI for February will provide more information on the turn higher of the global PMI cycle. We look for a lift in both. Today, we’ll get euro area sentiment indicators from the […]

Bye Bye Stock Rally

The week starts on a cautious note, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations intensify the selloff in global stocks and bonds, while pushing the US dollar higher against most majors. Friday’s US PCE data was bad. We knew, from the earlier releases that US inflation wouldn’t slow as much as expected, but Friday’s […]

Can the UK PMIs Come to the Pound's Rescue?

After selling the pound due to the slowdown in the UK CPIs for January, traders are now turning their attention to the preliminary PMIs for February, to be released on Tuesday at 07:30 GMT. With the BoE now trailing both the Fed and the ECB in terms of rate hike expectations, can the PMIs come […]

Treading Water

Stock markets in Europe are treading water in thin trade at the start of the week amid a light economic calendar and a US bank holiday. It was always likely to be a slow day under the circumstances and that’s exactly what it’s turning out to be. Stock markets remain in a surprisingly strong position […]

Loonie Would Love a Stronger CPI, But Not the Bank of Canada

With the next BoC meeting scheduled in just two weeks, loonie followers will have the chance to evaluate the current economic state. The deceleration in inflation pressures has been the global theme in the past three months providing significant breathing space to both households and governments. Will this week’s data confirm this recent trend or […]

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets It’s a directionless, low-volume trading session in absence of US investors (President’s Day) and awaiting events later this week. For the record: German Bunds are broadly unchanged with UK Gilts outperforming (-4 bps for 10y). European stock markets trade near opening levels with both EUR/USD (1.0680) and EUR/GBP (0.8875) a tad softer. Later this […]

Trainwreck in Slow Motion

Chinese equities were boosted on Monday by a report from Goldman Sachs predicting that the MSCI China index could rally as much as 24% by the end of the year. And it’s not necessarily a crazy bet. The index rebounded by more than 60% between last October and the end of this January. And even […]