Xmas Mess

I should admit that I thought the major event of this week would be Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell’s speech and a dot plot from the FOMC members, which would look significantly more hawkish than the expectations, and a couple of eventless 50bp hikes from the other major central banks including the European Central […]

ECB is Far from Done

Market movers today Markets will continue to digest the flurry of central bank meetings yesterday and we look out for ECB ‘sources’ stories, after the ‘hawkish’ rates guidance yesterday (see below). December flash PMI figures are on the agenda for the euro area, UK and US today and we expect them to bring further evidence […]

Back to Economic Data With All-Important European PMI

Markets The ECB delivered a 50 bps hawkish-to-the-bone rate hike yesterday. More than a third of ECB governors wanted a third 75 bps move, Bloomberg reported. To get the hawks on board, the ECB’s communication was very aggressive. Rates “will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace” the statement said. President Lagarde explained […]

Swiss Franc Reverses Slide after SNB Hike

SNB raises rates by 50 bp, Swiss franc rises Major central banks were in the spotlight this week, as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised rates by 50 basis points at their final meeting of the year. These moves overshadowed a 50 bp rate increase by the Swiss National Bank, where rate […]

Will There be a Santa Rally This Year?

Stocks are down substantially this year, even including indices which had a bit of a rally through the last month or so. There has been a split in trend, which is worthy of note. The DJIA moved higher, while the Nasdaq remained relatively steady. In Europe, indices don’t concentrate in certain sectors like they do […]

Weekly Focus

In a week dominated by central bank meetings, the end result was a more hawkish impression despite inflation data for November generally surprising to the downside. In the US, the Fed hiked by 50bp as expected, but with 17 out of 19 FOMC members indicating a Fed funds rate above 5% in 2023 and Chairman […]

Week Ahead – Bank of Japan Highlights a Data-Heavy Week

The central bank torch will pass to the Bank of Japan next week. Even though the consensus is for no policy changes, the prospects for the yen have started to improve heading into a potentially stormy year. There’s also a heavy dose of data releases from Canada and the United States.  BoJ to tighten next […]

Forward Guidance: Inflation to Cool as Economy Slows

Canadian inflation is falling further from its summer peak. CPI growth likely edged down to 6.7% year-over-year. Though that’s still very high, it nevertheless marks another drop below the measure’s 8.1% peak in June. Easing global inflation pressures have been behind much of that deceleration. Gas prices declined again in November, dropping 4% from October. […]

The Weekly Bottom Line: Slowing, But Not Stopping

U.S. Highlights The FOMC downshifted its tightening race in December, raising the policy rate by 50-bps, bringing the operating band to 4.25%-4.5%. The FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections showed a less optimistic economic outlook, accompanied by higher inflation. The median consensus on the Fed Funds rate was lifted by 50-bps for 2023, implying a terminal […]

Week Ahead – Into the Festive Season

US Wall Street will have a busy week of economic data releases and a handful of important earnings.  Investors will pay close attention to Nike’s results after the bell on Tuesday. Nike could provide insight into how strong the Chinese consumer is and provide one of the latest updates for holiday spending.  Other key earnings […]